WEBVTT NOTE Brussels Live. Transcribed and translated automatically from the original sound. Mistakes are possible. Independent service, not affiliated with the European Parliament or the European Commission. Source: © European Union. AI-generated: Transcripts, translations and summaries on this site are generated automatically by AI: speech recognition (Soniox), machine translation and summaries (Mistral AI). Not edited by humans before publication. EU AI Act, Article 50. 00:00:44.419 --> 00:00:49.826 What's the diagnosis? How would you describe where we find ourselves today? 00:00:49.939 --> 00:00:51.739 Can I start with you, Minister Jonsson? 00:00:52.279 --> 00:00:58.229 Sure. We're at a very dire point for European security due to Russia's full-scale 00:00:58.320 --> 00:01:04.816 invasion of Ukraine and what we are of course observing is that Russia might not be 00:01:04.879 --> 00:01:09.011 as strong as some people have assumed, but it doesn't make it less dangerous because 00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:14.562 it has a propensity to take great political and military risks, it shows a great 00:01:14.668 --> 00:01:22.162 deal of brutality not at least inside Ukraine and right now it has some tactical 00:01:22.213 --> 00:01:27.128 advantages currently when it comes to the production of ballistic missiles, when it 00:01:27.208 --> 00:01:32.254 comes to jet-driven Shahed drones or Gepard 2, and it also when it comes to glide 00:01:32.302 --> 00:01:37.282 bombs, which makes our Ukrainian friends being very much military challenged right 00:01:37.339 --> 00:01:40.328 now on the long-range strike capabilities. 00:01:40.399 --> 00:01:44.655 In conjunction, of course, that Russia has high ambitions to reconstitute their 00:01:44.719 --> 00:01:50.459 armed forces and come back bigger, so to speak, by going up possibly to 1. 00:01:50.599 --> 00:01:55.399 5 million soldiers and of course go wherever they have brigades right now, they're 00:01:55.433 --> 00:01:58.437 going to go up to divisions where they have divisions, they're going to go up to 00:01:58.481 --> 00:02:03.060 army corps and so forth. So this is there's going to be a lot of military expansion 00:02:03.117 --> 00:02:08.247 most likely from Russia, and that's why it's so important that as Europeans are able 00:02:08.335 --> 00:02:14.070 to transform economic clout into combat power in this challenging times and do it 00:02:14.127 --> 00:02:17.235 quickly on the basis of the agreement at the Hague. 00:02:17.299 --> 00:02:21.609 Last point then, of course, what we are seeing also is a propensity of Russia to 00:02:21.679 --> 00:02:26.008 take greater risk when it comes to this hybrid operations than I'm thinking about 00:02:26.052 --> 00:02:32.019 everything from disinformation to cyber element or CNA and CNE, and we're also 00:02:32.099 --> 00:02:38.703 seeing acts of sabotage, such as in Leipzig in Germany, in Poland, and Estonia to 00:02:38.765 --> 00:02:39.965 mention a few. 00:02:40.039 --> 00:02:44.179 Thank you so much, Minister Jonsson. Commissioner Kubilius, what would you like to 00:02:44.239 --> 00:02:46.879 add when describing our security environment? 00:02:48.439 --> 00:02:57.550 Well, I. First of all, really thanks a lot for inviting me, and I just was looking 00:02:57.653 --> 00:03:03.447 into the title of the whole conference, the new world order, and I was saying, well, 00:03:03.499 --> 00:03:06.491 maybe we should call the new world disorder. 00:03:06.559 --> 00:03:13.759 You know, and more precisely, you know, where we are, and that means, you know, in 00:03:13.879 --> 00:03:20.573 this big transformations worldwide, what is very much needed is European order. 00:03:20.659 --> 00:03:27.222 You know, inside of Europe and possibility to, you know, to emanate, you know, some 00:03:27.280 --> 00:03:31.689 kind of this power for the in a broader way. 00:03:31.759 --> 00:03:37.369 So definitely what Minister said, perhaps we see all of us, we see those major 00:03:37.470 --> 00:03:44.138 elements. Russia's, you know, the last on European continent or neo-imperial war 00:03:44.229 --> 00:03:49.608 against Ukraine, this is very clear. And, you know, our task of course is to deter 00:03:49.674 --> 00:03:56.027 Russia but still I would say that our level what we manage to achieve during some of 00:03:56.082 --> 00:04:00.919 those, you know, several years is not deterring Russia as we would like to see. 00:04:00.979 --> 00:04:06.606 Russia is escalating, next year we need to remember Russia is going to spend 00:04:06.679 --> 00:04:14.611 increasing their war budget up to 180 billion euros by 30% and usually at least it's 00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:19.423 I remember very well my years of Prime Minister usually in this region, you know, 00:04:19.512 --> 00:04:24.975 you cannot compare nominal numbers, you need to compare power purchasing power 00:04:25.043 --> 00:04:30.008 parity numbers. And then if you are using those, you know, that comparison method to 00:04:30.134 --> 00:04:35.605 180 billion Russian war budget, you are coming up to the numbers that Russia is 00:04:35.647 --> 00:04:42.250 ready to spend next year out of 500, 550 billion euros which is an amount equal to 00:04:42.314 --> 00:04:46.685 whatever the whole European Union is ready to spend for defense and maybe a little 00:04:46.740 --> 00:04:51.051 bit more. And we see that Russia still is keeping potential to innovate, to 00:04:51.157 --> 00:04:56.352 modernize drones or whatever they are using and even scaling up production. 00:04:56.419 --> 00:05:01.308 Last year they were able to produce around 1,000 ballistic missiles, this year they 00:05:01.361 --> 00:05:06.713 are ready to produce or this year perhaps they will reach 2,000 and you know that on 00:05:06.775 --> 00:05:09.813 European side we are not producing at all ballistic missiles. 00:05:09.859 --> 00:05:15.479 So this is where we are. Now second factor is of course our transatlantic partners 00:05:15.559 --> 00:05:17.779 not related with elections but in general 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:24.192 their structural clear agenda to shift more and more towards Indo-Pacific, the 00:05:24.239 --> 00:05:29.719 reasons are quite clear, China rising and to mitigate that rising power they will 00:05:29.779 --> 00:05:36.619 shift their resources to China as secure general Alexis Grinkiewicz is saying if 00:05:36.689 --> 00:05:43.564 Russia and China would decide at the same time to start some kind of, you know, 00:05:43.849 --> 00:05:49.834 major war aggression United States will not be able to cover both front lines. 00:05:49.879 --> 00:05:54.010 That is why they are asking us to take primary responsibility on European defense 00:05:54.055 --> 00:05:58.459 which again brings for us quite clear demand. 00:05:58.519 --> 00:06:05.737 What we need to do. Now here. Comes, you know, very clear what is on our agenda then 00:06:05.792 --> 00:06:10.819 as a priority. Of course support Ukraine from one side and second, you know, Ukraine 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:17.749 support to us. I mean learning from Ukraine as much as we can in order really to 00:06:17.872 --> 00:06:25.865 ramp up our own defense capabilities. And that is what is very much on our agenda 00:06:25.927 --> 00:06:32.726 but in order to achieve you know this defense readiness what we call defense 00:06:32.789 --> 00:06:38.497 readiness 2030 we need to see three pillars in this defense readiness, material one, 00:06:38.576 --> 00:06:42.778 it means production finances procurement and things like that where we are doing 00:06:42.816 --> 00:06:49.199 quite a lot not everything is going up to that you know level what we want to have 00:06:49.279 --> 00:06:54.781 here was very important European defense agency report which warned us that maybe we 00:06:54.843 --> 00:06:59.529 can miss the target 2030 so we need to make a conclusions but besides material 00:06:59.584 --> 00:07:03.776 defense readiness and very much related with that is what I call institutional 00:07:03.831 --> 00:07:07.749 defense readiness thanks a lot for some of your reports on security council and 00:07:07.791 --> 00:07:11.279 things like that what we are discussing now and the last one is what I call 00:07:11.330 --> 00:07:16.256 political defense readiness how to keep our political will to defend ourselves to 00:07:16.305 --> 00:07:21.229 support Ukraine when Russia is exactly attacking our political will with all their 00:07:21.274 --> 00:07:22.474 hybrid means. 00:07:22.639 --> 00:07:27.462 Thank you so much. So I mean you're the first commissioner with this specific role 00:07:27.520 --> 00:07:32.021 of being for defense and space and of course we have seen a number of initiatives in 00:07:32.084 --> 00:07:36.772 particular since the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine and now almost five 00:07:36.840 --> 00:07:41.884 years ago so looking at the measures and the development in the European Union but 00:07:41.953 --> 00:07:46.421 also European widely speaking what would you pick up as the most important and 00:07:46.475 --> 00:07:49.459 significant steps that we have taken so far? 00:07:51.439 --> 00:07:54.550 Well, I would say, you know, from the very beginning I was saying that in the 00:07:54.590 --> 00:07:57.999 European defense we need to have big bang approach. 00:07:58.099 --> 00:08:00.952 We cannot allow ourselves incremental, you know, changes. 00:08:01.039 --> 00:08:06.619 So we did something what we can call financial big bang both member states and us as 00:08:06.679 --> 00:08:12.345 EU institutions, member states agreed with NATO to increase our defense spending up 00:08:12.448 --> 00:08:18.850 to 3.5% for core defense then 1. 5 for something related with defense and just if to 00:08:18.897 --> 00:08:21.259 calculate just to understand what does it mean. 00:08:21.319 --> 00:08:28.066 If to calculate how much member states will spend till 2035 when they will reach 00:08:28.143 --> 00:08:33.520 this target it's very simple arithmetic you are coming down to quite an impressive 00:08:33.619 --> 00:08:37.647 number it will be around of 6.8 trillion euros. 00:08:37.759 --> 00:08:44.059 Trillion not billion. Then we did some you know financial new instruments like SAFE 00:08:44.119 --> 00:08:48.283 loans like national escape clause now Ukraine support loans of those are really 00:08:48.323 --> 00:08:55.564 important instruments which are really working and we are of course suggesting and 00:08:55.637 --> 00:09:00.804 proposed next MFF with five times bigger defense and space spending again I can 00:09:00.849 --> 00:09:07.399 repeat my please that governments would support it's very important you know 00:09:07.519 --> 00:09:13.459 promises. Yeah of governments that's good but we need to understand also how really 00:09:13.561 --> 00:09:19.709 it shows also what's and how you know responsibilities in Europe on defense are 00:09:19.802 --> 00:09:24.730 distributed. So if we shall have those you know 130 billion euros for space and 00:09:24.779 --> 00:09:30.781 defense so we can imagine that we shall perhaps have 50-50% you know distribution 00:09:30.829 --> 00:09:35.214 for space and defense so it means defense will have around of 65 or something like 00:09:35.276 --> 00:09:40.545 that billion euros and if you are comparing 65 billion euros with 6. 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:45.404 8 trillion euros on national defense you know spending then you see what is the 00:09:45.444 --> 00:09:50.172 difference and what are the role. We can incentivize member states to spend their 00:09:50.221 --> 00:09:53.412 big amounts of money in a prudent way. That's our role. 00:09:53.479 --> 00:09:58.444 And that is what you know what we. Always say. 00:09:58.519 --> 00:10:05.970 Now money itself is good but they are not you know defending. 00:10:06.019 --> 00:10:09.453 Ourselves against whatever drones you know and things like that. 00:10:09.499 --> 00:10:16.059 So then we need to look into production. You know how what's about production and I 00:10:16.087 --> 00:10:16.579 would say 00:10:16.579 --> 00:10:21.714 yeah we are in some cases we're increasing very rapidly production different you 00:10:21.791 --> 00:10:24.038 know different industries are doing great. 00:10:24.079 --> 00:10:30.355 Swedish industries are doing great. But again you know we need to see also that 00:10:30.439 --> 00:10:35.025 challenges ahead of us are big as always than the challenges which we managed to 00:10:35.083 --> 00:10:39.671 overcome. Just one example. Now we're working with Ukraine support loan. 00:10:39.739 --> 00:10:42.759 It goes through our services through my services. 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:48.109 We are managing all those you know contracts with Ukrainians very effective you know 00:10:48.154 --> 00:10:51.873 instrument and Ukrainians are saying this is the best instrument what they have in 00:10:51.919 --> 00:10:56.931 general in support you know mechanisms. This year we are we shall you know deliver 00:10:57.038 --> 00:11:03.304 to Ukraine financing of 28. 3 billion euros out from those 60. 00:11:03.619 --> 00:11:07.882 The contracts are coming from Ukraine. And half of that amount will go for 00:11:07.939 --> 00:11:10.411 production of drones around of 15 billions. 00:11:10.459 --> 00:11:15.409 Ukrainians are really good in producing and they need to produce to match Russia 00:11:15.474 --> 00:11:18.330 around of 10 million drones. This is huge amount. 00:11:18.379 --> 00:11:22.923 We need to understand what does it mean. It's around of 30,000 drones per day. 00:11:22.999 --> 00:11:25.472 But Russians are producing the same amounts you know. 00:11:25.519 --> 00:11:29.899 So that is what we shall face. We are producing in Europe around of 1.5 million 00:11:29.959 --> 00:11:38.519 drones. So again we need to understand around of 10 million 10 billion euros 00:11:38.599 --> 00:11:43.214 Ukrainians are ready to spend for air defense and missile defense. 00:11:43.279 --> 00:11:49.669 Including an 8 million billion goes to European producers 2 billion goes to PAC-3 00:11:49.759 --> 00:11:56.281 producers but that's a different story big shortage of PAC-3 Patriot missiles but 00:11:56.359 --> 00:12:03.314 among those 8 billion you know euros which we which we are ready to finance you know 00:12:03.379 --> 00:12:12.030 for Ukrainians to buy you know some equipment produced by European companies for air 00:12:12.094 --> 00:12:17.819 defense and missile defense the contracts are what are you know what European 00:12:17.886 --> 00:12:24.039 companies are able to do. Contracts are for 28-29 year. 00:12:24.139 --> 00:12:29.064 Which is really very much worrying us. So it means that we are still in our defense 00:12:29.119 --> 00:12:33.008 production we are not matching the needs even of Ukraine. 00:12:33.079 --> 00:12:36.990 I'm not talking about our needs. So that is why scaling up our production is 00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:38.119 crucial. 00:12:38.119 --> 00:12:42.613 And I will not go maybe into the details what we need to do. 00:12:42.739 --> 00:12:47.980 I see several topics. One is big structural problem you know of fragmentation of our 00:12:48.036 --> 00:12:52.035 defense industry. I will not repeat all the Mario Draghi report on that. 00:12:52.099 --> 00:12:58.215 But this is you know really which is a which creates you know some kind of limits 00:12:58.279 --> 00:13:05.512 how much we can achieve in scaling up production without our efforts to have the 00:13:05.599 --> 00:13:10.740 fragmentation of the market. And second of course what industries are starting to 00:13:10.778 --> 00:13:13.512 learn and what Ukrainians are showing as an example. 00:13:13.579 --> 00:13:16.226 And maybe even Russians are showing as an example. 00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:21.959 Our industries are saying well perhaps our problem is that we as industries we are 00:13:22.039 --> 00:13:26.694 too much targeted towards what they call haute couture production. 00:13:26.839 --> 00:13:32.384 Very technologically very very advanced very expensive and impossible to ramp up. 00:13:32.479 --> 00:13:37.276 And they are saying that they need to shift not forgetting haute couture you know 00:13:37.339 --> 00:13:41.157 very very well advanced you know technologies but they need to move into what they 00:13:41.221 --> 00:13:46.449 call good enough production. You know which is not so technologically complicated 00:13:46.536 --> 00:13:53.591 but it still hits the targets. It's cheaper and it's much more possible to ramp up 00:13:53.676 --> 00:13:58.487 you know and to scale up production. So that is I would say several of those you 00:13:58.539 --> 00:14:03.295 know things which we need to learn and we need to learn also how to build our 00:14:03.357 --> 00:14:09.375 pan-European projects. Because because of the fragmentation that is a quite a big 00:14:09.499 --> 00:14:13.055 task for us to learn to build pan-European project and that is why we came with 00:14:13.103 --> 00:14:18.115 those European defense projects of common interest EDPCIs as a new instrument also 00:14:18.199 --> 00:14:19.579 to try to bring us together. 00:14:20.539 --> 00:14:24.397 Minister, you're on. What would you see as the most important measures taken and 00:14:24.448 --> 00:14:27.499 perhaps looking back but also looking now to the where we are today? 00:14:27.859 --> 00:14:31.149 Well I can have the claim to fame to be a CSTP historian. 00:14:31.219 --> 00:14:35.818 You know I wrote my doctorate about this subject about 20 years ago. 00:14:35.899 --> 00:14:42.046 I've been quite critical to how it's been developed until but it has changed. 00:14:42.139 --> 00:14:49.300 So just to divide it up of course the EU has never been able to affect force posture 00:14:49.346 --> 00:14:53.740 but now it's going to do. But let me do I think there's two really landmarks 00:14:53.796 --> 00:14:58.895 accomplishments on the EU side. One is the EPF and the EPF was indispensable in the 00:14:58.949 --> 00:15:03.962 beginning to incentivize the member states to provide the Ukrainians with the 00:15:04.013 --> 00:15:07.948 military hardware because they know they were going to be that were going to be 00:15:07.980 --> 00:15:11.061 replaced. So I think that was a very significant landmark. 00:15:11.119 --> 00:15:16.099 The other of course is the EU loans because that's what kept the Ukrainians in the 00:15:16.159 --> 00:15:22.474 fight when the Americans stopped donating financially and militarily to the 00:15:22.549 --> 00:15:27.320 Ukrainian side besides from the POL packages which we buy from the Americans and 00:15:27.370 --> 00:15:32.559 they didn't tell the uns so those things have been really historical accomplishment 00:15:32.608 --> 00:15:36.713 I think this has been very very significant as you know we're also very open to 00:15:36.776 --> 00:15:42.626 looking into the immobilized Russian assets as well if so that's a Swedish position 00:15:42.684 --> 00:15:48.814 on that. So it has it has played a very significant way in assuring that the 00:15:48.889 --> 00:15:53.784 Europeans are able to support the Ukrainians also with the EU loans. 00:15:53.839 --> 00:15:56.349 The other one is opening up the stability pact. 00:15:56.419 --> 00:16:01.925 It was portrayed as providing Europe with 800 billion euros extra. 00:16:01.999 --> 00:16:05.299 These are member states money but still it's still 800. 00:16:05.419 --> 00:16:10.541 I think when you open up that short that the member states were both able and 00:16:10.596 --> 00:16:16.719 hopefully willing to live up to the to the to the commitments of reaching 5% of 00:16:16.807 --> 00:16:20.479 which 3. 5% are going to be core military expenditure. 00:16:20.539 --> 00:16:25.314 So once and together with the SAFE loans which I think are significant even though 00:16:25.367 --> 00:16:29.325 Sweden as you know we have a low national debts we're not part of SAFE but we 00:16:29.368 --> 00:16:33.168 welcome the SAFE. So I think those I think and then the EU also does you know 00:16:33.235 --> 00:16:40.843 important things but the such as cooperation on R&D regulating industry and under 00:16:40.911 --> 00:16:43.819 you have a super important job in omnibus defense 00:16:44.059 --> 00:16:52.117 you know assuring that we can deregulate and cut red tape there's now a review also 00:16:52.179 --> 00:16:57.411 of the procurement directive those things are important also for force posture and 00:16:57.469 --> 00:17:02.297 military hardware and can assure that EU and NATO have a complementary role of 00:17:02.365 --> 00:17:07.435 course NATO being the main guarantee of course when it comes to Article 5 and 00:17:07.587 --> 00:17:11.719 collective defense but EU can actually support that. 00:17:11.779 --> 00:17:16.682 And I think it's been actually good coordination to assure that the SAFE loans and 00:17:16.733 --> 00:17:21.215 the measures we are undertaking there are reasonably well coordinating with the 00:17:21.299 --> 00:17:25.848 North Star of our military buildup which is going to be the capability target that 00:17:25.905 --> 00:17:27.619 NATO has all provided us with. 00:17:28.519 --> 00:17:32.711 So but let's perhaps stay there on this little bit how to organize ourselves. 00:17:32.779 --> 00:17:37.439 I mean you as you mentioned for us of course a big shift in security policy was 00:17:37.519 --> 00:17:41.108 joining NATO as a consequence of the Russian invasion. 00:17:41.179 --> 00:17:45.646 But this is of course an eternal question about you know how to divide a little bit 00:17:45.715 --> 00:17:50.641 responsibility. And could you perhaps a little bit elaborate further on this Paul 00:17:50.696 --> 00:17:55.251 how you see it you know what should be then the what's the more specific role for 00:17:55.304 --> 00:18:00.900 the European Union when it comes to defense and perhaps also the wider sort of 00:18:00.975 --> 00:18:06.359 preparedness agenda. How do you see this in relation to perhaps a little bit 00:18:06.424 --> 00:18:09.019 concerns about the role of NATO in the future? 00:18:09.379 --> 00:18:12.938 Absolutely. And just very briefly then the perspective from the northern flank which 00:18:12.984 --> 00:18:16.736 is you know very close to my heart but what you see at least in the northern flank 00:18:16.791 --> 00:18:21.715 is that the security environment has been completely transformed since Sweden and 00:18:21.766 --> 00:18:24.790 Finland joined NATO in terms of military planning. 00:18:24.859 --> 00:18:29.944 This has come from a region of unpredictability into predictability because now we 00:18:29.997 --> 00:18:34.461 are tactically strategically and operational integrated into NATO's defense plan. 00:18:34.519 --> 00:18:37.593 Then we can really get traction on Nordic defense cooperation. 00:18:37.639 --> 00:18:41.708 I used to say that Nordic defense cooperation there was a defense cooperation for 00:18:41.764 --> 00:18:45.637 peace times solutions before but I feel much more traction on doing that. 00:18:45.679 --> 00:18:50.474 We can create all these new partnership like with submarines with Poland and so 00:18:50.523 --> 00:18:56.877 forth as well. So that's been but the EU has an important role and I we follow this 00:18:56.948 --> 00:18:59.839 for example with the ASEP has been important. 00:18:59.899 --> 00:19:04.979 It's been assuring that we in the few years have been having the ability to triple 00:19:05.036 --> 00:19:08.114 having the ability to triple the production of 155. 00:19:08.179 --> 00:19:11.352 I think that's a very significant accomplishment. 00:19:11.419 --> 00:19:18.690 We're using EDIP funding for going into KT we went to KTH yesterday. 00:19:18.739 --> 00:19:23.449 As well. We're putting up a center of excellence or a Swedish center of excellence 00:19:23.524 --> 00:19:26.592 on providing this nitrocellulose gun powder. 00:19:26.659 --> 00:19:31.634 I think the and there are many examples I think also when it comes to collaborations 00:19:31.699 --> 00:19:36.569 also and making sure that this is my piece of advice making sure that the proposals 00:19:36.619 --> 00:19:43.382 that come from the commission are well drafted and well tailored because otherwise 00:19:43.459 --> 00:19:49.687 we defense ministers spend a lot of time talking about all these details as well and 00:19:49.755 --> 00:19:53.535 we go to this ministerial meetings and we mix the big pictures because we're talking 00:19:53.585 --> 00:19:57.370 about technicalities as well. Yeah that because there has been an avalanche of 00:19:57.426 --> 00:20:02.967 initiatives on the EU side right now and there is it's certainly affect what we're 00:20:03.034 --> 00:20:04.699 discussing at the FAFC. 00:20:06.199 --> 00:20:11.082 Mr. Capitas, when you were in Salem this winter in the security conference you had 00:20:11.150 --> 00:20:15.153 the ideas of you mentioned there should be a big bang in European defense. 00:20:15.199 --> 00:20:18.706 You mentioned the need for European security council. 00:20:18.799 --> 00:20:21.326 And a number of other institutional innovations. 00:20:21.379 --> 00:20:25.531 Now as we see from the president of the commission von der Leyen she has also 00:20:25.579 --> 00:20:28.432 endorsed this idea of a European security council. 00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:34.914 And also the work on a European security protocol that is a way of dealing with a 00:20:35.008 --> 00:20:40.209 number of these threats that are perhaps below certain thresholds. 00:20:40.279 --> 00:20:46.167 Now could you elaborate a little bit why you see the need to also think about how we 00:20:46.246 --> 00:20:48.859 work with security in Europe in this context? 00:20:49.399 --> 00:20:54.452 Well thanks a lot. Very good question and also previous question to Paul. 00:20:54.619 --> 00:21:00.226 You know I was saying in Salem you know very simple that well we need you know 00:21:00.287 --> 00:21:04.519 financial big bang we need industrial big bang but also I said we need intellectual 00:21:04.579 --> 00:21:12.237 big bang you know in developing our defense Readiness and as I said you know in 00:21:12.286 --> 00:21:17.581 defense readiness I see those three pillars material institutional very important we 00:21:17.632 --> 00:21:22.301 are now starting to touch that topic but still you know we need to go much more 00:21:22.358 --> 00:21:27.929 deeply and then you know political one on hybrids you know and one where I'm talking 00:21:27.995 --> 00:21:33.494 about institutional defense readiness really I'm trying to understand where we are 00:21:33.559 --> 00:21:39.281 in a longer term you know and I see that our you know times our generation and 00:21:39.349 --> 00:21:45.970 younger generation we shall go through two major transformations at the same time. 00:21:46.039 --> 00:21:50.135 One is what I call you know transformation which is happening once in a hundred 00:21:50.186 --> 00:21:55.148 years. And second which is happening once in a almost 500 years or you can say 00:21:55.219 --> 00:21:59.357 millennium. And you know this millennium what does it mean? 00:21:59.419 --> 00:22:05.216 China and India are coming back to you know being strong and leading economical 00:22:05.301 --> 00:22:08.767 powers before the end of you know this century. 00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:14.981 That is what was the reality of the world before Columbus big you know voyages. 00:22:15.079 --> 00:22:19.442 That's what is coming. What will be the consequences of that we can just guess. 00:22:19.579 --> 00:22:23.773 But one of the consequences is that Americans are shifting to you know with a 00:22:23.839 --> 00:22:27.942 long-term you know strategy. They are shifting towards Indo-Pacific which is 00:22:28.012 --> 00:22:30.809 absolutely I cannot disagree with them you know. 00:22:30.859 --> 00:22:36.108 The question is how it will go how we shall prepare for ourselves ourselves and so 00:22:36.162 --> 00:22:38.605 on. This is you know more technical question. 00:22:38.659 --> 00:22:46.329 Second transformation related with that is what I call 100 years transformation is 00:22:46.459 --> 00:22:49.806 transformation of the nature of collective defense of Europe. 00:22:49.879 --> 00:22:55.591 From the beginning of you know NATO it was transatlantic collective defense of 00:22:55.643 --> 00:23:02.139 Europe. Now with NATO 3.0 with primary responsibility of Europe on you know defense 00:23:02.219 --> 00:23:07.018 of Europe it means that this transatlantic collective defense of Europe is shifting 00:23:07.067 --> 00:23:09.619 towards European collective defense of Europe. 00:23:09.679 --> 00:23:14.471 Much more you know of course United States will stay nuclear you know protection 00:23:14.519 --> 00:23:18.365 will stay but we need to understand that we are moving into that. 00:23:18.439 --> 00:23:23.382 And we can call it whatever we want you know European pill of NATO and so on and so 00:23:23.436 --> 00:23:28.699 on you know. But that will demand from us also to understand how we need to 00:23:28.759 --> 00:23:35.041 transform our institutional approach towards defense issues on European continent. 00:23:35.119 --> 00:23:40.167 And here I have very simple you know always I'm repeating it's not against NATO NATO 00:23:40.234 --> 00:23:45.253 will transform itself you know into much more of European on European continent. 00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:47.993 And I'm always saying NATO is a military might. 00:23:48.079 --> 00:23:51.873 European Union is an economical power. This is our division of labor. 00:23:51.919 --> 00:23:56.933 And then the question is how we're bringing this European you know economical power 00:23:56.987 --> 00:24:00.338 to develop our defense capability. That will stay. 00:24:00.439 --> 00:24:05.285 But also in order to build this you know European pill of NATO we need to understand 00:24:05.359 --> 00:24:10.486 very well what commission president repeated several times including the last during 00:24:10.541 --> 00:24:15.536 the last state of the Union address. All of us we pick this you know hear sentence 00:24:15.590 --> 00:24:21.139 about European security council. But before that she said look doctrines 00:24:21.206 --> 00:24:26.906 institutions and decision making which we created during peace time and which are 00:24:26.971 --> 00:24:32.259 based on consensus and so on and so on they are not fit anymore for the purpose 00:24:32.309 --> 00:24:37.357 during this you know new world order or new world disorder times. 00:24:37.459 --> 00:24:43.569 So that's what is the reality. So it means that we need to look very very deeply. 00:24:43.639 --> 00:24:49.139 So how to organize ourselves in a better way from institutional point of view. 00:24:49.219 --> 00:24:55.073 And that is where comes the question about you know do our institutions which we 00:24:55.198 --> 00:25:03.496 have like European you know European Union defense councils 207 you know and so on. 00:25:03.559 --> 00:25:08.302 Do they fit for the purpose? In my view really it could be we can look for something 00:25:08.399 --> 00:25:16.590 better organized with two major goals. If we are taking responsibility as Europeans 00:25:16.681 --> 00:25:24.156 on European defense then we need to answer the question how to you know to build a 00:25:24.218 --> 00:25:29.670 geographical basis much stronger for such an European defense it should be not only 00:25:29.719 --> 00:25:32.479 European Union member states we have on one side 00:25:32.539 --> 00:25:37.974 we have United Kingdom we have Norway which are members of NATO but not members of 00:25:38.045 --> 00:25:43.368 EU and we have Ukraine which is not member of NATO and not member of EU okay NATO is 00:25:43.440 --> 00:25:48.636 really not very clear when Ukraine will be able to join European Union is maybe more 00:25:48.694 --> 00:25:55.374 clear but still that will take time and we need Ukrainian battle tested experience 00:25:55.475 --> 00:26:01.231 not in 10 years time but now. So that is what we need also to look into how we can 00:26:01.296 --> 00:26:06.015 do that. That is why I am talking about European defense union which could be you 00:26:06.079 --> 00:26:11.202 know some kind of new framework you know for everybody on equal footing you know to 00:26:11.281 --> 00:26:16.935 come together who will who wants to come together you know and to and to build this 00:26:16.999 --> 00:26:23.208 you know broader geographical basis for our defense readiness and second we need to 00:26:23.269 --> 00:26:30.178 look also how to make our institutional framework much more effective because this 00:26:30.263 --> 00:26:35.964 you know 27 is good but not not most effective not easy yeah not easy. 00:26:36.019 --> 00:26:41.796 So that is why I propose to to come back to the ideas which were originally proposed 00:26:41.873 --> 00:26:49.955 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel back in 2018 to have what we called European 00:26:50.058 --> 00:26:57.922 security council in. Some way a little bit similar to what now we have this format 00:26:58.016 --> 00:27:05.826 E5 E5 plus big you know countries with strong defense capabilities and strong 00:27:05.899 --> 00:27:11.795 industrial you know capacity defense industrial capacity should come together here 00:27:11.839 --> 00:27:16.773 can be rotational members coming from different regions you know in order to have 00:27:16.830 --> 00:27:23.843 much better geographical balance but they should give answers big answers to big 00:27:23.916 --> 00:27:28.951 questions that's my view and then you know everybody will will will will have 00:27:29.007 --> 00:27:30.199 possibility to follow. 00:27:30.199 --> 00:27:33.273 That's what we're always looking for. Sometimes there are big answers to small 00:27:33.315 --> 00:27:36.697 questions and vice versa as well. But I have a big question to the commissioner and 00:27:36.739 --> 00:27:42.096 I have meeting you before you before also you you became a defense commissioner but 00:27:42.141 --> 00:27:46.025 one of the first questions I asked you as defense minister okay what do you do in 00:27:46.077 --> 00:27:50.486 case the EU becomes in war you know I know exactly what I'm going to be doing if 00:27:50.528 --> 00:27:54.590 Sweden comes into wars there are procedures there's files you know do we go into the 00:27:54.645 --> 00:27:59.668 government but preparing also the EU for war and what would happen if a member state 00:27:59.719 --> 00:28:03.819 would be in attack and here I'm alluding also to the minister report which I think 00:28:03.859 --> 00:28:09.173 was commendably important enhancing resilience because if we want to use the 00:28:09.272 --> 00:28:15.457 resources that are inside the EU and the EU has important resources also in case of 00:28:15.525 --> 00:28:19.768 war that need to be integrated also into NATO's common defense planning. 00:28:19.819 --> 00:28:23.952 So I think there is you know in order to bring awareness I think we should grapple 00:28:24.003 --> 00:28:28.395 with these things and what role the EU should have in case of an armed attack. 00:28:28.459 --> 00:28:33.898 And this is not just about Article 427 and 222 and but but there are also and I 00:28:33.932 --> 00:28:38.502 think I think there are also some interesting things I think also on on security 00:28:38.572 --> 00:28:43.324 protocol for hybrid threats. Especially the EU one of its merits is working internal 00:28:43.375 --> 00:28:46.715 and external security. But these are things that we need to grapple with. 00:28:46.759 --> 00:28:51.386 Also in integrated way because we've been doing some planning and some scenarios and 00:28:51.468 --> 00:28:56.378 if it's not planned in advance those resources you ain't going to work in war 00:28:56.421 --> 00:28:58.939 because it's going to seen as two institutionally cumbersome. 00:28:59.239 --> 00:29:03.057 And that's one of the important messages from the minister report to practice these 00:29:03.107 --> 00:29:07.617 and also I guess the logic behind the so-called security protocol that creates this 00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:10.989 kind of structure how to deal with certain situations. 00:29:11.059 --> 00:29:17.692 Yeah. What a good question minister and again you know and this is next year I 00:29:17.815 --> 00:29:24.693 perhaps said you know that it was very interesting to see approved walking program 00:29:24.764 --> 00:29:30.406 for next year what commission is going to do on defense issues and exactly both you 00:29:30.455 --> 00:29:37.355 know this security protocol but also Article 427 is you know there is an in agenda 00:29:37.417 --> 00:29:42.428 you know making really operationalization of this article as minister report was 00:29:42.484 --> 00:29:51.053 asking and we need to understand that you know Article 427 is speaking about mutual 00:29:51.118 --> 00:29:55.805 support by all the means usually everybody looks only into military means which okay 00:29:55.851 --> 00:30:00.717 you know that is a little bit more complicated in military terms you know how to 00:30:00.804 --> 00:30:05.913 combine with NATO of course there are Cyprus there are Austria there are you know 00:30:05.994 --> 00:30:10.540 island which are not members of NATO and they are looking only into Article 427 but 00:30:10.605 --> 00:30:16.843 in my view most important is for us to understand that if we shall be you know hit 00:30:16.937 --> 00:30:22.381 by major crisis war crisis that will be the crisis not only military one which NATO 00:30:22.436 --> 00:30:27.471 has the answers of course Article 5 plans military plans and so on and so on it will 00:30:27.527 --> 00:30:32.975 be the major crisis in all the different areas economical crisis you know social 00:30:33.063 --> 00:30:38.738 crisis humanitarian crisis and here European Union has the whole series of 00:30:38.807 --> 00:30:43.287 established instruments which would be very helpful for member states which became a 00:30:43.335 --> 00:30:47.494 victim of that aggression so we need to look from that point of view how to 00:30:47.547 --> 00:30:52.255 synchronize all those mechanisms how to make them you know much easier much more 00:30:52.339 --> 00:30:58.604 easy to to hit to to you know to start them and then you know to have even some kind 00:30:58.666 --> 00:31:03.357 of playbook which would be helpful for prime ministers to have on the table and if 00:31:03.409 --> 00:31:08.306 you are hit by the crisis you very quickly can learn what kind of assistance you can 00:31:08.359 --> 00:31:13.408 get both from your neighboring countries but also from EU institutions which can be 00:31:13.463 --> 00:31:16.399 of a very great assistance in coordinating I you know 00:31:16.699 --> 00:31:22.364 I since I had this experience being prime minister I started to look through my eyes 00:31:22.420 --> 00:31:27.612 you know so what would happen you know what what what what you will do as as prime 00:31:27.679 --> 00:31:31.387 minister if you are hit by the crisis and then I I came to very simple conclusion 00:31:31.430 --> 00:31:36.194 that I would be very happy if I would be able to call somebody in European 00:31:36.259 --> 00:31:41.435 commission or institutions asking for assistance to organize to help me to organize 00:31:41.492 --> 00:31:46.039 this mutual assistance not that I am as a prime minister should call myself you know 00:31:46.144 --> 00:31:52.051 Swedish or I will call you know but but I would be really very happy to have some 00:31:52.114 --> 00:31:56.199 kind of this you know established network established system which would be 00:31:56.246 --> 00:32:01.045 triggered and and that will work. So this is what what I see as as really very big 00:32:01.102 --> 00:32:06.491 need and for example now we are working on on our our priority now for at the moment 00:32:06.559 --> 00:32:07.759 is military mobility. 00:32:08.059 --> 00:32:14.791 Yeah. When I look just to when I looked into well I I was I even understood while we 00:32:14.859 --> 00:32:20.417 were discussing this military mobility that I was looking till now into very much 00:32:20.503 --> 00:32:25.723 simplified way what does it mean military mobility and well okay we need to resolve 00:32:25.780 --> 00:32:30.319 issues of what we call military Schengen how to resolve those you know permits on 00:32:30.367 --> 00:32:35.359 the borders that is you know legal question then we need to find the money to invest 00:32:35.439 --> 00:32:40.867 into infrastructure you know roads railways and so on okay that is also very well 00:32:40.928 --> 00:32:45.437 known but only now I started to understand that you can have permits you can have 00:32:45.504 --> 00:32:52.404 you know you can have roads and bridges but you first of all you can have a deficit 00:32:52.468 --> 00:32:58.026 of transportation means which is a reality at the moment and second even if you will 00:32:58.099 --> 00:33:03.857 have enough of transportation means the coordination of you know all those movements 00:33:03.930 --> 00:33:09.924 we need to understand first tire NATO NATO plans to bring 100,000 troops during 10 00:33:10.016 --> 00:33:17.316 days to the front line 10 days 100,000 troops I asked the NATO experts 5,000 troops 00:33:17.402 --> 00:33:26.379 one brigade to be moved you know to the front line if you will use roads the convoy 00:33:26.519 --> 00:33:32.719 of trucks putting you know trucks nose to nose will be 12 kilometers long one 00:33:32.839 --> 00:33:40.397 brigade 1,100 troops of NATO first tire means 20 brigades so it's simple arithmetic 00:33:40.471 --> 00:33:45.082 it's a very that's a very long yeah so one brigade 4,000 containers we normally 00:33:45.136 --> 00:33:51.240 count it like that roughly we we're probably both speaking too much now I'm very 00:33:51.283 --> 00:33:54.937 very much going to be part of the problem here because we're leaving I think up to 00:33:55.005 --> 00:34:01.159 Kiruna to the at our spaceport like that but so just like maybe very clear that that 00:34:01.219 --> 00:34:07.363 you know if if if in the member state or or an ally would be exposed to to an armed 00:34:07.435 --> 00:34:11.202 attack and NATO would be the to go you know and this Ireland class commitment to 00:34:11.248 --> 00:34:16.011 Article 5 and NATO's defense plan so that's our first response but there is as as 00:34:16.124 --> 00:34:21.238 the commissioner said a very important role also for the EU in many other aspect 00:34:21.319 --> 00:34:25.718 diplomatically financially and so forth and we're learning some of the hard lessons 00:34:25.769 --> 00:34:29.539 on that also in in Ukraine where where the EU also plays a very 00:34:29.719 --> 00:34:34.278 important role so I just wanted to make that clear so I had already mentioned that I 00:34:34.330 --> 00:34:38.773 wanted to take up questions from the audience but I think as the minister said we 00:34:38.839 --> 00:34:43.714 were a bit too talkative and I perhaps not strict we're not kind yeah with time and 00:34:43.775 --> 00:34:49.989 the topics were perhaps too so important and too big so but I I realized that you 00:34:50.033 --> 00:34:53.994 have a transport and you have to leave so with this I will only say a big thanks to 00:34:54.041 --> 00:34:58.837 you and I think you've offered a lot of questions that we can hopefully try to help 00:34:58.904 --> 00:35:04.214 with our intellectual big bang we will have today to resolve some of them so thank 00:35:04.291 --> 00:35:11.253 you so much okay thanks a lot thanks a lot thank you okay we're running here and go 00:35:11.342 --> 00:35:16.339 here and get the microphone and I will now.