1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,000 Brussels Live Transcribed and translated by AI 2 00:00:44,419 --> 00:00:49,826 What's the diagnosis? How would you describe where we find ourselves today? 3 00:00:49,939 --> 00:00:51,739 Can I start with you, Minister Jonsson? 4 00:00:52,279 --> 00:00:58,229 Sure. We're at a very dire point for European security due to Russia's full-scale 5 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:04,816 invasion of Ukraine and what we are of course observing is that Russia might not be 6 00:01:04,879 --> 00:01:09,011 as strong as some people have assumed, but it doesn't make it less dangerous because 7 00:01:09,079 --> 00:01:14,562 it has a propensity to take great political and military risks, it shows a great 8 00:01:14,668 --> 00:01:22,162 deal of brutality not at least inside Ukraine and right now it has some tactical 9 00:01:22,213 --> 00:01:27,128 advantages currently when it comes to the production of ballistic missiles, when it 10 00:01:27,208 --> 00:01:32,254 comes to jet-driven Shahed drones or Gepard 2, and it also when it comes to glide 11 00:01:32,302 --> 00:01:37,282 bombs, which makes our Ukrainian friends being very much military challenged right 12 00:01:37,339 --> 00:01:40,328 now on the long-range strike capabilities. 13 00:01:40,399 --> 00:01:44,655 In conjunction, of course, that Russia has high ambitions to reconstitute their 14 00:01:44,719 --> 00:01:50,459 armed forces and come back bigger, so to speak, by going up possibly to 1. 15 00:01:50,599 --> 00:01:55,399 5 million soldiers and of course go wherever they have brigades right now, they're 16 00:01:55,433 --> 00:01:58,437 going to go up to divisions where they have divisions, they're going to go up to 17 00:01:58,481 --> 00:02:03,060 army corps and so forth. So this is there's going to be a lot of military expansion 18 00:02:03,117 --> 00:02:08,247 most likely from Russia, and that's why it's so important that as Europeans are able 19 00:02:08,335 --> 00:02:14,070 to transform economic clout into combat power in this challenging times and do it 20 00:02:14,127 --> 00:02:17,235 quickly on the basis of the agreement at the Hague. 21 00:02:17,299 --> 00:02:21,609 Last point then, of course, what we are seeing also is a propensity of Russia to 22 00:02:21,679 --> 00:02:26,008 take greater risk when it comes to this hybrid operations than I'm thinking about 23 00:02:26,052 --> 00:02:32,019 everything from disinformation to cyber element or CNA and CNE, and we're also 24 00:02:32,099 --> 00:02:38,703 seeing acts of sabotage, such as in Leipzig in Germany, in Poland, and Estonia to 25 00:02:38,765 --> 00:02:39,965 mention a few. 26 00:02:40,039 --> 00:02:44,179 Thank you so much, Minister Jonsson. Commissioner Kubilius, what would you like to 27 00:02:44,239 --> 00:02:46,879 add when describing our security environment? 28 00:02:48,439 --> 00:02:57,550 Well, I. First of all, really thanks a lot for inviting me, and I just was looking 29 00:02:57,653 --> 00:03:03,447 into the title of the whole conference, the new world order, and I was saying, well, 30 00:03:03,499 --> 00:03:06,491 maybe we should call the new world disorder. 31 00:03:06,559 --> 00:03:13,759 You know, and more precisely, you know, where we are, and that means, you know, in 32 00:03:13,879 --> 00:03:20,573 this big transformations worldwide, what is very much needed is European order. 33 00:03:20,659 --> 00:03:27,222 You know, inside of Europe and possibility to, you know, to emanate, you know, some 34 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:31,689 kind of this power for the in a broader way. 35 00:03:31,759 --> 00:03:37,369 So definitely what Minister said, perhaps we see all of us, we see those major 36 00:03:37,470 --> 00:03:44,138 elements. Russia's, you know, the last on European continent or neo-imperial war 37 00:03:44,229 --> 00:03:49,608 against Ukraine, this is very clear. And, you know, our task of course is to deter 38 00:03:49,674 --> 00:03:56,027 Russia but still I would say that our level what we manage to achieve during some of 39 00:03:56,082 --> 00:04:00,919 those, you know, several years is not deterring Russia as we would like to see. 40 00:04:00,979 --> 00:04:06,606 Russia is escalating, next year we need to remember Russia is going to spend 41 00:04:06,679 --> 00:04:14,611 increasing their war budget up to 180 billion euros by 30% and usually at least it's 42 00:04:14,719 --> 00:04:19,423 I remember very well my years of Prime Minister usually in this region, you know, 43 00:04:19,512 --> 00:04:24,975 you cannot compare nominal numbers, you need to compare power purchasing power 44 00:04:25,043 --> 00:04:30,008 parity numbers. And then if you are using those, you know, that comparison method to 45 00:04:30,134 --> 00:04:35,605 180 billion Russian war budget, you are coming up to the numbers that Russia is 46 00:04:35,647 --> 00:04:42,250 ready to spend next year out of 500, 550 billion euros which is an amount equal to 47 00:04:42,314 --> 00:04:46,685 whatever the whole European Union is ready to spend for defense and maybe a little 48 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:51,051 bit more. And we see that Russia still is keeping potential to innovate, to 49 00:04:51,157 --> 00:04:56,352 modernize drones or whatever they are using and even scaling up production. 50 00:04:56,419 --> 00:05:01,308 Last year they were able to produce around 1,000 ballistic missiles, this year they 51 00:05:01,361 --> 00:05:06,713 are ready to produce or this year perhaps they will reach 2,000 and you know that on 52 00:05:06,775 --> 00:05:09,813 European side we are not producing at all ballistic missiles. 53 00:05:09,859 --> 00:05:15,479 So this is where we are. Now second factor is of course our transatlantic partners 54 00:05:15,559 --> 00:05:17,779 not related with elections but in general 55 00:05:18,199 --> 00:05:24,192 their structural clear agenda to shift more and more towards Indo-Pacific, the 56 00:05:24,239 --> 00:05:29,719 reasons are quite clear, China rising and to mitigate that rising power they will 57 00:05:29,779 --> 00:05:36,619 shift their resources to China as secure general Alexis Grinkiewicz is saying if 58 00:05:36,689 --> 00:05:43,564 Russia and China would decide at the same time to start some kind of, you know, 59 00:05:43,849 --> 00:05:49,834 major war aggression United States will not be able to cover both front lines. 60 00:05:49,879 --> 00:05:54,010 That is why they are asking us to take primary responsibility on European defense 61 00:05:54,055 --> 00:05:58,459 which again brings for us quite clear demand. 62 00:05:58,519 --> 00:06:05,737 What we need to do. Now here. Comes, you know, very clear what is on our agenda then 63 00:06:05,792 --> 00:06:10,819 as a priority. Of course support Ukraine from one side and second, you know, Ukraine 64 00:06:10,879 --> 00:06:17,749 support to us. I mean learning from Ukraine as much as we can in order really to 65 00:06:17,872 --> 00:06:25,865 ramp up our own defense capabilities. And that is what is very much on our agenda 66 00:06:25,927 --> 00:06:32,726 but in order to achieve you know this defense readiness what we call defense 67 00:06:32,789 --> 00:06:38,497 readiness 2030 we need to see three pillars in this defense readiness, material one, 68 00:06:38,576 --> 00:06:42,778 it means production finances procurement and things like that where we are doing 69 00:06:42,816 --> 00:06:49,199 quite a lot not everything is going up to that you know level what we want to have 70 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:54,781 here was very important European defense agency report which warned us that maybe we 71 00:06:54,843 --> 00:06:59,529 can miss the target 2030 so we need to make a conclusions but besides material 72 00:06:59,584 --> 00:07:03,776 defense readiness and very much related with that is what I call institutional 73 00:07:03,831 --> 00:07:07,749 defense readiness thanks a lot for some of your reports on security council and 74 00:07:07,791 --> 00:07:11,279 things like that what we are discussing now and the last one is what I call 75 00:07:11,330 --> 00:07:16,256 political defense readiness how to keep our political will to defend ourselves to 76 00:07:16,305 --> 00:07:21,229 support Ukraine when Russia is exactly attacking our political will with all their 77 00:07:21,274 --> 00:07:22,474 hybrid means. 78 00:07:22,639 --> 00:07:27,462 Thank you so much. So I mean you're the first commissioner with this specific role 79 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:32,021 of being for defense and space and of course we have seen a number of initiatives in 80 00:07:32,084 --> 00:07:36,772 particular since the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine and now almost five 81 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:41,884 years ago so looking at the measures and the development in the European Union but 82 00:07:41,953 --> 00:07:46,421 also European widely speaking what would you pick up as the most important and 83 00:07:46,475 --> 00:07:49,459 significant steps that we have taken so far? 84 00:07:51,439 --> 00:07:54,550 Well, I would say, you know, from the very beginning I was saying that in the 85 00:07:54,590 --> 00:07:57,999 European defense we need to have big bang approach. 86 00:07:58,099 --> 00:08:00,952 We cannot allow ourselves incremental, you know, changes. 87 00:08:01,039 --> 00:08:06,619 So we did something what we can call financial big bang both member states and us as 88 00:08:06,679 --> 00:08:12,345 EU institutions, member states agreed with NATO to increase our defense spending up 89 00:08:12,448 --> 00:08:18,850 to 3.5% for core defense then 1. 5 for something related with defense and just if to 90 00:08:18,897 --> 00:08:21,259 calculate just to understand what does it mean. 91 00:08:21,319 --> 00:08:28,066 If to calculate how much member states will spend till 2035 when they will reach 92 00:08:28,143 --> 00:08:33,520 this target it's very simple arithmetic you are coming down to quite an impressive 93 00:08:33,619 --> 00:08:37,647 number it will be around of 6.8 trillion euros. 94 00:08:37,759 --> 00:08:44,059 Trillion not billion. Then we did some you know financial new instruments like SAFE 95 00:08:44,119 --> 00:08:48,283 loans like national escape clause now Ukraine support loans of those are really 96 00:08:48,323 --> 00:08:55,564 important instruments which are really working and we are of course suggesting and 97 00:08:55,637 --> 00:09:00,804 proposed next MFF with five times bigger defense and space spending again I can 98 00:09:00,849 --> 00:09:07,399 repeat my please that governments would support it's very important you know 99 00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:13,459 promises. Yeah of governments that's good but we need to understand also how really 100 00:09:13,561 --> 00:09:19,709 it shows also what's and how you know responsibilities in Europe on defense are 101 00:09:19,802 --> 00:09:24,730 distributed. So if we shall have those you know 130 billion euros for space and 102 00:09:24,779 --> 00:09:30,781 defense so we can imagine that we shall perhaps have 50-50% you know distribution 103 00:09:30,829 --> 00:09:35,214 for space and defense so it means defense will have around of 65 or something like 104 00:09:35,276 --> 00:09:40,545 that billion euros and if you are comparing 65 billion euros with 6. 105 00:09:40,639 --> 00:09:45,404 8 trillion euros on national defense you know spending then you see what is the 106 00:09:45,444 --> 00:09:50,172 difference and what are the role. We can incentivize member states to spend their 107 00:09:50,221 --> 00:09:53,412 big amounts of money in a prudent way. That's our role. 108 00:09:53,479 --> 00:09:58,444 And that is what you know what we. Always say. 109 00:09:58,519 --> 00:10:05,970 Now money itself is good but they are not you know defending. 110 00:10:06,019 --> 00:10:09,453 Ourselves against whatever drones you know and things like that. 111 00:10:09,499 --> 00:10:16,059 So then we need to look into production. You know how what's about production and I 112 00:10:16,087 --> 00:10:16,579 would say 113 00:10:16,579 --> 00:10:21,714 yeah we are in some cases we're increasing very rapidly production different you 114 00:10:21,791 --> 00:10:24,038 know different industries are doing great. 115 00:10:24,079 --> 00:10:30,355 Swedish industries are doing great. But again you know we need to see also that 116 00:10:30,439 --> 00:10:35,025 challenges ahead of us are big as always than the challenges which we managed to 117 00:10:35,083 --> 00:10:39,671 overcome. Just one example. Now we're working with Ukraine support loan. 118 00:10:39,739 --> 00:10:42,759 It goes through our services through my services. 119 00:10:42,799 --> 00:10:48,109 We are managing all those you know contracts with Ukrainians very effective you know 120 00:10:48,154 --> 00:10:51,873 instrument and Ukrainians are saying this is the best instrument what they have in 121 00:10:51,919 --> 00:10:56,931 general in support you know mechanisms. This year we are we shall you know deliver 122 00:10:57,038 --> 00:11:03,304 to Ukraine financing of 28. 3 billion euros out from those 60. 123 00:11:03,619 --> 00:11:07,882 The contracts are coming from Ukraine. And half of that amount will go for 124 00:11:07,939 --> 00:11:10,411 production of drones around of 15 billions. 125 00:11:10,459 --> 00:11:15,409 Ukrainians are really good in producing and they need to produce to match Russia 126 00:11:15,474 --> 00:11:18,330 around of 10 million drones. This is huge amount. 127 00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:22,923 We need to understand what does it mean. It's around of 30,000 drones per day. 128 00:11:22,999 --> 00:11:25,472 But Russians are producing the same amounts you know. 129 00:11:25,519 --> 00:11:29,899 So that is what we shall face. We are producing in Europe around of 1.5 million 130 00:11:29,959 --> 00:11:38,519 drones. So again we need to understand around of 10 million 10 billion euros 131 00:11:38,599 --> 00:11:43,214 Ukrainians are ready to spend for air defense and missile defense. 132 00:11:43,279 --> 00:11:49,669 Including an 8 million billion goes to European producers 2 billion goes to PAC-3 133 00:11:49,759 --> 00:11:56,281 producers but that's a different story big shortage of PAC-3 Patriot missiles but 134 00:11:56,359 --> 00:12:03,314 among those 8 billion you know euros which we which we are ready to finance you know 135 00:12:03,379 --> 00:12:12,030 for Ukrainians to buy you know some equipment produced by European companies for air 136 00:12:12,094 --> 00:12:17,819 defense and missile defense the contracts are what are you know what European 137 00:12:17,886 --> 00:12:24,039 companies are able to do. Contracts are for 28-29 year. 138 00:12:24,139 --> 00:12:29,064 Which is really very much worrying us. So it means that we are still in our defense 139 00:12:29,119 --> 00:12:33,008 production we are not matching the needs even of Ukraine. 140 00:12:33,079 --> 00:12:36,990 I'm not talking about our needs. So that is why scaling up our production is 141 00:12:37,039 --> 00:12:38,119 crucial. 142 00:12:38,119 --> 00:12:42,613 And I will not go maybe into the details what we need to do. 143 00:12:42,739 --> 00:12:47,980 I see several topics. One is big structural problem you know of fragmentation of our 144 00:12:48,036 --> 00:12:52,035 defense industry. I will not repeat all the Mario Draghi report on that. 145 00:12:52,099 --> 00:12:58,215 But this is you know really which is a which creates you know some kind of limits 146 00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:05,512 how much we can achieve in scaling up production without our efforts to have the 147 00:13:05,599 --> 00:13:10,740 fragmentation of the market. And second of course what industries are starting to 148 00:13:10,778 --> 00:13:13,512 learn and what Ukrainians are showing as an example. 149 00:13:13,579 --> 00:13:16,226 And maybe even Russians are showing as an example. 150 00:13:16,279 --> 00:13:21,959 Our industries are saying well perhaps our problem is that we as industries we are 151 00:13:22,039 --> 00:13:26,694 too much targeted towards what they call haute couture production. 152 00:13:26,839 --> 00:13:32,384 Very technologically very very advanced very expensive and impossible to ramp up. 153 00:13:32,479 --> 00:13:37,276 And they are saying that they need to shift not forgetting haute couture you know 154 00:13:37,339 --> 00:13:41,157 very very well advanced you know technologies but they need to move into what they 155 00:13:41,221 --> 00:13:46,449 call good enough production. You know which is not so technologically complicated 156 00:13:46,536 --> 00:13:53,591 but it still hits the targets. It's cheaper and it's much more possible to ramp up 157 00:13:53,676 --> 00:13:58,487 you know and to scale up production. So that is I would say several of those you 158 00:13:58,539 --> 00:14:03,295 know things which we need to learn and we need to learn also how to build our 159 00:14:03,357 --> 00:14:09,375 pan-European projects. Because because of the fragmentation that is a quite a big 160 00:14:09,499 --> 00:14:13,055 task for us to learn to build pan-European project and that is why we came with 161 00:14:13,103 --> 00:14:18,115 those European defense projects of common interest EDPCIs as a new instrument also 162 00:14:18,199 --> 00:14:19,579 to try to bring us together. 163 00:14:20,539 --> 00:14:24,397 Minister, you're on. What would you see as the most important measures taken and 164 00:14:24,448 --> 00:14:27,499 perhaps looking back but also looking now to the where we are today? 165 00:14:27,859 --> 00:14:31,149 Well I can have the claim to fame to be a CSTP historian. 166 00:14:31,219 --> 00:14:35,818 You know I wrote my doctorate about this subject about 20 years ago. 167 00:14:35,899 --> 00:14:42,046 I've been quite critical to how it's been developed until but it has changed. 168 00:14:42,139 --> 00:14:49,300 So just to divide it up of course the EU has never been able to affect force posture 169 00:14:49,346 --> 00:14:53,740 but now it's going to do. But let me do I think there's two really landmarks 170 00:14:53,796 --> 00:14:58,895 accomplishments on the EU side. One is the EPF and the EPF was indispensable in the 171 00:14:58,949 --> 00:15:03,962 beginning to incentivize the member states to provide the Ukrainians with the 172 00:15:04,013 --> 00:15:07,948 military hardware because they know they were going to be that were going to be 173 00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:11,061 replaced. So I think that was a very significant landmark. 174 00:15:11,119 --> 00:15:16,099 The other of course is the EU loans because that's what kept the Ukrainians in the 175 00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:22,474 fight when the Americans stopped donating financially and militarily to the 176 00:15:22,549 --> 00:15:27,320 Ukrainian side besides from the POL packages which we buy from the Americans and 177 00:15:27,370 --> 00:15:32,559 they didn't tell the uns so those things have been really historical accomplishment 178 00:15:32,608 --> 00:15:36,713 I think this has been very very significant as you know we're also very open to 179 00:15:36,776 --> 00:15:42,626 looking into the immobilized Russian assets as well if so that's a Swedish position 180 00:15:42,684 --> 00:15:48,814 on that. So it has it has played a very significant way in assuring that the 181 00:15:48,889 --> 00:15:53,784 Europeans are able to support the Ukrainians also with the EU loans. 182 00:15:53,839 --> 00:15:56,349 The other one is opening up the stability pact. 183 00:15:56,419 --> 00:16:01,925 It was portrayed as providing Europe with 800 billion euros extra. 184 00:16:01,999 --> 00:16:05,299 These are member states money but still it's still 800. 185 00:16:05,419 --> 00:16:10,541 I think when you open up that short that the member states were both able and 186 00:16:10,596 --> 00:16:16,719 hopefully willing to live up to the to the to the commitments of reaching 5% of 187 00:16:16,807 --> 00:16:20,479 which 3. 5% are going to be core military expenditure. 188 00:16:20,539 --> 00:16:25,314 So once and together with the SAFE loans which I think are significant even though 189 00:16:25,367 --> 00:16:29,325 Sweden as you know we have a low national debts we're not part of SAFE but we 190 00:16:29,368 --> 00:16:33,168 welcome the SAFE. So I think those I think and then the EU also does you know 191 00:16:33,235 --> 00:16:40,843 important things but the such as cooperation on R&D regulating industry and under 192 00:16:40,911 --> 00:16:43,819 you have a super important job in omnibus defense 193 00:16:44,059 --> 00:16:52,117 you know assuring that we can deregulate and cut red tape there's now a review also 194 00:16:52,179 --> 00:16:57,411 of the procurement directive those things are important also for force posture and 195 00:16:57,469 --> 00:17:02,297 military hardware and can assure that EU and NATO have a complementary role of 196 00:17:02,365 --> 00:17:07,435 course NATO being the main guarantee of course when it comes to Article 5 and 197 00:17:07,587 --> 00:17:11,719 collective defense but EU can actually support that. 198 00:17:11,779 --> 00:17:16,682 And I think it's been actually good coordination to assure that the SAFE loans and 199 00:17:16,733 --> 00:17:21,215 the measures we are undertaking there are reasonably well coordinating with the 200 00:17:21,299 --> 00:17:25,848 North Star of our military buildup which is going to be the capability target that 201 00:17:25,905 --> 00:17:27,619 NATO has all provided us with. 202 00:17:28,519 --> 00:17:32,711 So but let's perhaps stay there on this little bit how to organize ourselves. 203 00:17:32,779 --> 00:17:37,439 I mean you as you mentioned for us of course a big shift in security policy was 204 00:17:37,519 --> 00:17:41,108 joining NATO as a consequence of the Russian invasion. 205 00:17:41,179 --> 00:17:45,646 But this is of course an eternal question about you know how to divide a little bit 206 00:17:45,715 --> 00:17:50,641 responsibility. And could you perhaps a little bit elaborate further on this Paul 207 00:17:50,696 --> 00:17:55,251 how you see it you know what should be then the what's the more specific role for 208 00:17:55,304 --> 00:18:00,900 the European Union when it comes to defense and perhaps also the wider sort of 209 00:18:00,975 --> 00:18:06,359 preparedness agenda. How do you see this in relation to perhaps a little bit 210 00:18:06,424 --> 00:18:09,019 concerns about the role of NATO in the future? 211 00:18:09,379 --> 00:18:12,938 Absolutely. And just very briefly then the perspective from the northern flank which 212 00:18:12,984 --> 00:18:16,736 is you know very close to my heart but what you see at least in the northern flank 213 00:18:16,791 --> 00:18:21,715 is that the security environment has been completely transformed since Sweden and 214 00:18:21,766 --> 00:18:24,790 Finland joined NATO in terms of military planning. 215 00:18:24,859 --> 00:18:29,944 This has come from a region of unpredictability into predictability because now we 216 00:18:29,997 --> 00:18:34,461 are tactically strategically and operational integrated into NATO's defense plan. 217 00:18:34,519 --> 00:18:37,593 Then we can really get traction on Nordic defense cooperation. 218 00:18:37,639 --> 00:18:41,708 I used to say that Nordic defense cooperation there was a defense cooperation for 219 00:18:41,764 --> 00:18:45,637 peace times solutions before but I feel much more traction on doing that. 220 00:18:45,679 --> 00:18:50,474 We can create all these new partnership like with submarines with Poland and so 221 00:18:50,523 --> 00:18:56,877 forth as well. So that's been but the EU has an important role and I we follow this 222 00:18:56,948 --> 00:18:59,839 for example with the ASEP has been important. 223 00:18:59,899 --> 00:19:04,979 It's been assuring that we in the few years have been having the ability to triple 224 00:19:05,036 --> 00:19:08,114 having the ability to triple the production of 155. 225 00:19:08,179 --> 00:19:11,352 I think that's a very significant accomplishment. 226 00:19:11,419 --> 00:19:18,690 We're using EDIP funding for going into KT we went to KTH yesterday. 227 00:19:18,739 --> 00:19:23,449 As well. We're putting up a center of excellence or a Swedish center of excellence 228 00:19:23,524 --> 00:19:26,592 on providing this nitrocellulose gun powder. 229 00:19:26,659 --> 00:19:31,634 I think the and there are many examples I think also when it comes to collaborations 230 00:19:31,699 --> 00:19:36,569 also and making sure that this is my piece of advice making sure that the proposals 231 00:19:36,619 --> 00:19:43,382 that come from the commission are well drafted and well tailored because otherwise 232 00:19:43,459 --> 00:19:49,687 we defense ministers spend a lot of time talking about all these details as well and 233 00:19:49,755 --> 00:19:53,535 we go to this ministerial meetings and we mix the big pictures because we're talking 234 00:19:53,585 --> 00:19:57,370 about technicalities as well. Yeah that because there has been an avalanche of 235 00:19:57,426 --> 00:20:02,967 initiatives on the EU side right now and there is it's certainly affect what we're 236 00:20:03,034 --> 00:20:04,699 discussing at the FAFC. 237 00:20:06,199 --> 00:20:11,082 Mr. Capitas, when you were in Salem this winter in the security conference you had 238 00:20:11,150 --> 00:20:15,153 the ideas of you mentioned there should be a big bang in European defense. 239 00:20:15,199 --> 00:20:18,706 You mentioned the need for European security council. 240 00:20:18,799 --> 00:20:21,326 And a number of other institutional innovations. 241 00:20:21,379 --> 00:20:25,531 Now as we see from the president of the commission von der Leyen she has also 242 00:20:25,579 --> 00:20:28,432 endorsed this idea of a European security council. 243 00:20:28,519 --> 00:20:34,914 And also the work on a European security protocol that is a way of dealing with a 244 00:20:35,008 --> 00:20:40,209 number of these threats that are perhaps below certain thresholds. 245 00:20:40,279 --> 00:20:46,167 Now could you elaborate a little bit why you see the need to also think about how we 246 00:20:46,246 --> 00:20:48,859 work with security in Europe in this context? 247 00:20:49,399 --> 00:20:54,452 Well thanks a lot. Very good question and also previous question to Paul. 248 00:20:54,619 --> 00:21:00,226 You know I was saying in Salem you know very simple that well we need you know 249 00:21:00,287 --> 00:21:04,519 financial big bang we need industrial big bang but also I said we need intellectual 250 00:21:04,579 --> 00:21:12,237 big bang you know in developing our defense Readiness and as I said you know in 251 00:21:12,286 --> 00:21:17,581 defense readiness I see those three pillars material institutional very important we 252 00:21:17,632 --> 00:21:22,301 are now starting to touch that topic but still you know we need to go much more 253 00:21:22,358 --> 00:21:27,929 deeply and then you know political one on hybrids you know and one where I'm talking 254 00:21:27,995 --> 00:21:33,494 about institutional defense readiness really I'm trying to understand where we are 255 00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:39,281 in a longer term you know and I see that our you know times our generation and 256 00:21:39,349 --> 00:21:45,970 younger generation we shall go through two major transformations at the same time. 257 00:21:46,039 --> 00:21:50,135 One is what I call you know transformation which is happening once in a hundred 258 00:21:50,186 --> 00:21:55,148 years. And second which is happening once in a almost 500 years or you can say 259 00:21:55,219 --> 00:21:59,357 millennium. And you know this millennium what does it mean? 260 00:21:59,419 --> 00:22:05,216 China and India are coming back to you know being strong and leading economical 261 00:22:05,301 --> 00:22:08,767 powers before the end of you know this century. 262 00:22:08,839 --> 00:22:14,981 That is what was the reality of the world before Columbus big you know voyages. 263 00:22:15,079 --> 00:22:19,442 That's what is coming. What will be the consequences of that we can just guess. 264 00:22:19,579 --> 00:22:23,773 But one of the consequences is that Americans are shifting to you know with a 265 00:22:23,839 --> 00:22:27,942 long-term you know strategy. They are shifting towards Indo-Pacific which is 266 00:22:28,012 --> 00:22:30,809 absolutely I cannot disagree with them you know. 267 00:22:30,859 --> 00:22:36,108 The question is how it will go how we shall prepare for ourselves ourselves and so 268 00:22:36,162 --> 00:22:38,605 on. This is you know more technical question. 269 00:22:38,659 --> 00:22:46,329 Second transformation related with that is what I call 100 years transformation is 270 00:22:46,459 --> 00:22:49,806 transformation of the nature of collective defense of Europe. 271 00:22:49,879 --> 00:22:55,591 From the beginning of you know NATO it was transatlantic collective defense of 272 00:22:55,643 --> 00:23:02,139 Europe. Now with NATO 3.0 with primary responsibility of Europe on you know defense 273 00:23:02,219 --> 00:23:07,018 of Europe it means that this transatlantic collective defense of Europe is shifting 274 00:23:07,067 --> 00:23:09,619 towards European collective defense of Europe. 275 00:23:09,679 --> 00:23:14,471 Much more you know of course United States will stay nuclear you know protection 276 00:23:14,519 --> 00:23:18,365 will stay but we need to understand that we are moving into that. 277 00:23:18,439 --> 00:23:23,382 And we can call it whatever we want you know European pill of NATO and so on and so 278 00:23:23,436 --> 00:23:28,699 on you know. But that will demand from us also to understand how we need to 279 00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:35,041 transform our institutional approach towards defense issues on European continent. 280 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:40,167 And here I have very simple you know always I'm repeating it's not against NATO NATO 281 00:23:40,234 --> 00:23:45,253 will transform itself you know into much more of European on European continent. 282 00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:47,993 And I'm always saying NATO is a military might. 283 00:23:48,079 --> 00:23:51,873 European Union is an economical power. This is our division of labor. 284 00:23:51,919 --> 00:23:56,933 And then the question is how we're bringing this European you know economical power 285 00:23:56,987 --> 00:24:00,338 to develop our defense capability. That will stay. 286 00:24:00,439 --> 00:24:05,285 But also in order to build this you know European pill of NATO we need to understand 287 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:10,486 very well what commission president repeated several times including the last during 288 00:24:10,541 --> 00:24:15,536 the last state of the Union address. All of us we pick this you know hear sentence 289 00:24:15,590 --> 00:24:21,139 about European security council. But before that she said look doctrines 290 00:24:21,206 --> 00:24:26,906 institutions and decision making which we created during peace time and which are 291 00:24:26,971 --> 00:24:32,259 based on consensus and so on and so on they are not fit anymore for the purpose 292 00:24:32,309 --> 00:24:37,357 during this you know new world order or new world disorder times. 293 00:24:37,459 --> 00:24:43,569 So that's what is the reality. So it means that we need to look very very deeply. 294 00:24:43,639 --> 00:24:49,139 So how to organize ourselves in a better way from institutional point of view. 295 00:24:49,219 --> 00:24:55,073 And that is where comes the question about you know do our institutions which we 296 00:24:55,198 --> 00:25:03,496 have like European you know European Union defense councils 207 you know and so on. 297 00:25:03,559 --> 00:25:08,302 Do they fit for the purpose? In my view really it could be we can look for something 298 00:25:08,399 --> 00:25:16,590 better organized with two major goals. If we are taking responsibility as Europeans 299 00:25:16,681 --> 00:25:24,156 on European defense then we need to answer the question how to you know to build a 300 00:25:24,218 --> 00:25:29,670 geographical basis much stronger for such an European defense it should be not only 301 00:25:29,719 --> 00:25:32,479 European Union member states we have on one side 302 00:25:32,539 --> 00:25:37,974 we have United Kingdom we have Norway which are members of NATO but not members of 303 00:25:38,045 --> 00:25:43,368 EU and we have Ukraine which is not member of NATO and not member of EU okay NATO is 304 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:48,636 really not very clear when Ukraine will be able to join European Union is maybe more 305 00:25:48,694 --> 00:25:55,374 clear but still that will take time and we need Ukrainian battle tested experience 306 00:25:55,475 --> 00:26:01,231 not in 10 years time but now. So that is what we need also to look into how we can 307 00:26:01,296 --> 00:26:06,015 do that. That is why I am talking about European defense union which could be you 308 00:26:06,079 --> 00:26:11,202 know some kind of new framework you know for everybody on equal footing you know to 309 00:26:11,281 --> 00:26:16,935 come together who will who wants to come together you know and to and to build this 310 00:26:16,999 --> 00:26:23,208 you know broader geographical basis for our defense readiness and second we need to 311 00:26:23,269 --> 00:26:30,178 look also how to make our institutional framework much more effective because this 312 00:26:30,263 --> 00:26:35,964 you know 27 is good but not not most effective not easy yeah not easy. 313 00:26:36,019 --> 00:26:41,796 So that is why I propose to to come back to the ideas which were originally proposed 314 00:26:41,873 --> 00:26:49,955 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel back in 2018 to have what we called European 315 00:26:50,058 --> 00:26:57,922 security council in. Some way a little bit similar to what now we have this format 316 00:26:58,016 --> 00:27:05,826 E5 E5 plus big you know countries with strong defense capabilities and strong 317 00:27:05,899 --> 00:27:11,795 industrial you know capacity defense industrial capacity should come together here 318 00:27:11,839 --> 00:27:16,773 can be rotational members coming from different regions you know in order to have 319 00:27:16,830 --> 00:27:23,843 much better geographical balance but they should give answers big answers to big 320 00:27:23,916 --> 00:27:28,951 questions that's my view and then you know everybody will will will will have 321 00:27:29,007 --> 00:27:30,199 possibility to follow. 322 00:27:30,199 --> 00:27:33,273 That's what we're always looking for. Sometimes there are big answers to small 323 00:27:33,315 --> 00:27:36,697 questions and vice versa as well. But I have a big question to the commissioner and 324 00:27:36,739 --> 00:27:42,096 I have meeting you before you before also you you became a defense commissioner but 325 00:27:42,141 --> 00:27:46,025 one of the first questions I asked you as defense minister okay what do you do in 326 00:27:46,077 --> 00:27:50,486 case the EU becomes in war you know I know exactly what I'm going to be doing if 327 00:27:50,528 --> 00:27:54,590 Sweden comes into wars there are procedures there's files you know do we go into the 328 00:27:54,645 --> 00:27:59,668 government but preparing also the EU for war and what would happen if a member state 329 00:27:59,719 --> 00:28:03,819 would be in attack and here I'm alluding also to the minister report which I think 330 00:28:03,859 --> 00:28:09,173 was commendably important enhancing resilience because if we want to use the 331 00:28:09,272 --> 00:28:15,457 resources that are inside the EU and the EU has important resources also in case of 332 00:28:15,525 --> 00:28:19,768 war that need to be integrated also into NATO's common defense planning. 333 00:28:19,819 --> 00:28:23,952 So I think there is you know in order to bring awareness I think we should grapple 334 00:28:24,003 --> 00:28:28,395 with these things and what role the EU should have in case of an armed attack. 335 00:28:28,459 --> 00:28:33,898 And this is not just about Article 427 and 222 and but but there are also and I 336 00:28:33,932 --> 00:28:38,502 think I think there are also some interesting things I think also on on security 337 00:28:38,572 --> 00:28:43,324 protocol for hybrid threats. Especially the EU one of its merits is working internal 338 00:28:43,375 --> 00:28:46,715 and external security. But these are things that we need to grapple with. 339 00:28:46,759 --> 00:28:51,386 Also in integrated way because we've been doing some planning and some scenarios and 340 00:28:51,468 --> 00:28:56,378 if it's not planned in advance those resources you ain't going to work in war 341 00:28:56,421 --> 00:28:58,939 because it's going to seen as two institutionally cumbersome. 342 00:28:59,239 --> 00:29:03,057 And that's one of the important messages from the minister report to practice these 343 00:29:03,107 --> 00:29:07,617 and also I guess the logic behind the so-called security protocol that creates this 344 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,989 kind of structure how to deal with certain situations. 345 00:29:11,059 --> 00:29:17,692 Yeah. What a good question minister and again you know and this is next year I 346 00:29:17,815 --> 00:29:24,693 perhaps said you know that it was very interesting to see approved walking program 347 00:29:24,764 --> 00:29:30,406 for next year what commission is going to do on defense issues and exactly both you 348 00:29:30,455 --> 00:29:37,355 know this security protocol but also Article 427 is you know there is an in agenda 349 00:29:37,417 --> 00:29:42,428 you know making really operationalization of this article as minister report was 350 00:29:42,484 --> 00:29:51,053 asking and we need to understand that you know Article 427 is speaking about mutual 351 00:29:51,118 --> 00:29:55,805 support by all the means usually everybody looks only into military means which okay 352 00:29:55,851 --> 00:30:00,717 you know that is a little bit more complicated in military terms you know how to 353 00:30:00,804 --> 00:30:05,913 combine with NATO of course there are Cyprus there are Austria there are you know 354 00:30:05,994 --> 00:30:10,540 island which are not members of NATO and they are looking only into Article 427 but 355 00:30:10,605 --> 00:30:16,843 in my view most important is for us to understand that if we shall be you know hit 356 00:30:16,937 --> 00:30:22,381 by major crisis war crisis that will be the crisis not only military one which NATO 357 00:30:22,436 --> 00:30:27,471 has the answers of course Article 5 plans military plans and so on and so on it will 358 00:30:27,527 --> 00:30:32,975 be the major crisis in all the different areas economical crisis you know social 359 00:30:33,063 --> 00:30:38,738 crisis humanitarian crisis and here European Union has the whole series of 360 00:30:38,807 --> 00:30:43,287 established instruments which would be very helpful for member states which became a 361 00:30:43,335 --> 00:30:47,494 victim of that aggression so we need to look from that point of view how to 362 00:30:47,547 --> 00:30:52,255 synchronize all those mechanisms how to make them you know much easier much more 363 00:30:52,339 --> 00:30:58,604 easy to to hit to to you know to start them and then you know to have even some kind 364 00:30:58,666 --> 00:31:03,357 of playbook which would be helpful for prime ministers to have on the table and if 365 00:31:03,409 --> 00:31:08,306 you are hit by the crisis you very quickly can learn what kind of assistance you can 366 00:31:08,359 --> 00:31:13,408 get both from your neighboring countries but also from EU institutions which can be 367 00:31:13,463 --> 00:31:16,399 of a very great assistance in coordinating I you know 368 00:31:16,699 --> 00:31:22,364 I since I had this experience being prime minister I started to look through my eyes 369 00:31:22,420 --> 00:31:27,612 you know so what would happen you know what what what what you will do as as prime 370 00:31:27,679 --> 00:31:31,387 minister if you are hit by the crisis and then I I came to very simple conclusion 371 00:31:31,430 --> 00:31:36,194 that I would be very happy if I would be able to call somebody in European 372 00:31:36,259 --> 00:31:41,435 commission or institutions asking for assistance to organize to help me to organize 373 00:31:41,492 --> 00:31:46,039 this mutual assistance not that I am as a prime minister should call myself you know 374 00:31:46,144 --> 00:31:52,051 Swedish or I will call you know but but I would be really very happy to have some 375 00:31:52,114 --> 00:31:56,199 kind of this you know established network established system which would be 376 00:31:56,246 --> 00:32:01,045 triggered and and that will work. So this is what what I see as as really very big 377 00:32:01,102 --> 00:32:06,491 need and for example now we are working on on our our priority now for at the moment 378 00:32:06,559 --> 00:32:07,759 is military mobility. 379 00:32:08,059 --> 00:32:14,791 Yeah. When I look just to when I looked into well I I was I even understood while we 380 00:32:14,859 --> 00:32:20,417 were discussing this military mobility that I was looking till now into very much 381 00:32:20,503 --> 00:32:25,723 simplified way what does it mean military mobility and well okay we need to resolve 382 00:32:25,780 --> 00:32:30,319 issues of what we call military Schengen how to resolve those you know permits on 383 00:32:30,367 --> 00:32:35,359 the borders that is you know legal question then we need to find the money to invest 384 00:32:35,439 --> 00:32:40,867 into infrastructure you know roads railways and so on okay that is also very well 385 00:32:40,928 --> 00:32:45,437 known but only now I started to understand that you can have permits you can have 386 00:32:45,504 --> 00:32:52,404 you know you can have roads and bridges but you first of all you can have a deficit 387 00:32:52,468 --> 00:32:58,026 of transportation means which is a reality at the moment and second even if you will 388 00:32:58,099 --> 00:33:03,857 have enough of transportation means the coordination of you know all those movements 389 00:33:03,930 --> 00:33:09,924 we need to understand first tire NATO NATO plans to bring 100,000 troops during 10 390 00:33:10,016 --> 00:33:17,316 days to the front line 10 days 100,000 troops I asked the NATO experts 5,000 troops 391 00:33:17,402 --> 00:33:26,379 one brigade to be moved you know to the front line if you will use roads the convoy 392 00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:32,719 of trucks putting you know trucks nose to nose will be 12 kilometers long one 393 00:33:32,839 --> 00:33:40,397 brigade 1,100 troops of NATO first tire means 20 brigades so it's simple arithmetic 394 00:33:40,471 --> 00:33:45,082 it's a very that's a very long yeah so one brigade 4,000 containers we normally 395 00:33:45,136 --> 00:33:51,240 count it like that roughly we we're probably both speaking too much now I'm very 396 00:33:51,283 --> 00:33:54,937 very much going to be part of the problem here because we're leaving I think up to 397 00:33:55,005 --> 00:34:01,159 Kiruna to the at our spaceport like that but so just like maybe very clear that that 398 00:34:01,219 --> 00:34:07,363 you know if if if in the member state or or an ally would be exposed to to an armed 399 00:34:07,435 --> 00:34:11,202 attack and NATO would be the to go you know and this Ireland class commitment to 400 00:34:11,248 --> 00:34:16,011 Article 5 and NATO's defense plan so that's our first response but there is as as 401 00:34:16,124 --> 00:34:21,238 the commissioner said a very important role also for the EU in many other aspect 402 00:34:21,319 --> 00:34:25,718 diplomatically financially and so forth and we're learning some of the hard lessons 403 00:34:25,769 --> 00:34:29,539 on that also in in Ukraine where where the EU also plays a very 404 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:34,278 important role so I just wanted to make that clear so I had already mentioned that I 405 00:34:34,330 --> 00:34:38,773 wanted to take up questions from the audience but I think as the minister said we 406 00:34:38,839 --> 00:34:43,714 were a bit too talkative and I perhaps not strict we're not kind yeah with time and 407 00:34:43,775 --> 00:34:49,989 the topics were perhaps too so important and too big so but I I realized that you 408 00:34:50,033 --> 00:34:53,994 have a transport and you have to leave so with this I will only say a big thanks to 409 00:34:54,041 --> 00:34:58,837 you and I think you've offered a lot of questions that we can hopefully try to help 410 00:34:58,904 --> 00:35:04,214 with our intellectual big bang we will have today to resolve some of them so thank 411 00:35:04,291 --> 00:35:11,253 you so much okay thanks a lot thanks a lot thank you okay we're running here and go 412 00:35:11,342 --> 00:35:16,339 here and get the microphone and I will now.