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Good afternoon, and welcome to our press
conference, with President Lagarde, and

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Vice President Vučić. My
name is Wolfgang Preussel.

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As always, we are joined by
journalists who are connected online;

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if they ask a question, I would like to
ask them to turn on their cameras and

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microphones. And with that, I hand
over to you, President Lagarde.

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Thank you very much, Wolfgang, and
good afternoon, good day to all of you.

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The Vice President and I welcome
you to our press conference.

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The Governing Council today decided to
keep the three key ECB interest rates

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unchanged. Energy prices
have continued to rise.

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Posing upside risks to the inflation
outlook and downside risks to the growth

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outlook. While the full effects of the
energy shock are still unfolding, underlying

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inflation has remained broadly stable
so far, and wages do not show a material

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response at this stage. The increased
magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as

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well as the implications for indirect and
second-round effects, are likely to drive

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up inflation and lower growth. Financing
conditions have tightened since our last

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meeting. Which is likely to
weigh on inflation and growth.

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We are committed to setting monetary policy
to ensure that inflation stabilizes at

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our 2% target in the medium term. We remain
well-positioned to navigate the current

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elevated uncertainty. We will follow a
data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting

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approach to determining the
appropriate monetary policy stance.

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In particular, our interest rate decisions
will be based on our assessment of the

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inflation outlook and the risks surrounding
it, in light of the incoming economic

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and financial data, as well as the dynamics
of underlying inflation and the strength

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of monetary policy transmission. We are
not pre-committing to a particular rate

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path. The decisions taken today are set
out in a press release that is available on

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our website. And I will now outline in
more detail how we see the economy and

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inflation developing and will then explain
our assessment of financial and monetary

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conditions. The incoming data suggest that
the euro area economy continued to expand

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in the third quarter of the year. Services
have recovered, after weakening at the

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start of the Middle East conflict.
Manufacturing, digital services, and exports are

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benefiting from AR-related
business investment.

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Government spending on infrastructure
and defense is also supporting activity.

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These factors should continue to
underpin growth in the near term.

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At the same time, renewed energy price
increases have hit consumer confidence and

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higher financing costs are
likely to weigh on growth.

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The unemployment rate
remained at 6.4% in August.

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Growth in employment and the labor force
remains subdued, while productivity has

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gradually picked up. Over the medium term,
a recovery in confidence and real incomes

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driven by gradually declining energy prices
and a robust labor market should bolster

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domestic demand. Investment in AI-related
activities and government spending on

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infrastructure and defense should
also continue to support growth.

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Export growth should pick up on the
back of strengthening foreign demand.

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Higher potential growth requires structural
reforms and has to be underpinned by

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sound public finances. Fiscal sustainability
is a crucial anchor for broader

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economic stability. Fiscal responses
to the energy shock should be temporary

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targeted and tailored. Simplifying and
harmonizing rules across the EU's single

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market, accelerating the energy
transition, and completing the savings and

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investment union are key building blocks
to make our economy more dynamic and

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resilient. As the process for agreeing on
the legal framework for the digital euro

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moves into its final stage, we reiterate
the importance of reaching agreement on the

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single currency package
as quickly as possible.

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Inflation rose to 3.8%
in September, from 3.

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2% in August. Energy price
inflation increased markedly, to 18.

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9%, from 14.3% in August. Diesel and petrol
prices reached new peaks in September,

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in part reflecting
elevated refining margins.

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Inflation excluding energy increased to 2.

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3% in September, from 2.1% in August. Food
price inflation increased to 1.3%, from

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1. 1%. Services inflation increased to
3.2% in September, from 3% in August.

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While goods inflation
declined to 1.1%, from 1.

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2%.

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Indicators of underlying inflation
have remained broadly stable.

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Although the early stages of the
pricing chain point to upward pressures.

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Wage pressures remain moderate,
compensation per employee grew by 3.

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3% in the second quarter, down
from 3. 6% in the first quarter.

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While rising productivity has helped
contain the growth of unit labor costs.

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Our forward-looking wage tracker suggests
that negotiated wage growth will fluctuate

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between 2. 5% and 2.8% in the remaining
month of 2026, and average 2.6% in the first

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three quarters of 2027. Inflation expectations
over shorter horizons have risen, but

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most measures of longer-term inflation
expectations stand at around 2%, supporting

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the stabilization of inflation
around target in the medium term.

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Energy prices have increased,
beyond the baseline.

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Beyond the baseline path foreseen in
the September ECB staff projections.

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This is likely to raise inflation further
in the near term, and keep headline

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inflation well above target
over the coming quarters.

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Thereafter, declining energy inflation
together with the effects of higher interest

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rates should support the
return of inflation to target.

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The risks to the growth
outlook are to the downside.

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This is due in particular to the Middle
East conflict and recent developments in

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Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine.
Continued disruption of energy supplies

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could cause energy prices to rise further
and for longer than currently expected.

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This would weigh on real incomes,
spending, and investment.

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A worsening of global financial market
sentiment, or intensifying spillovers in

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global bond markets, could tighten financing
conditions and thereby dampen demand.

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Fiscal uncertainty, may also further
tighten financing conditions and weaken

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confidence, thereby lowering
consumption and investment.

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A resurgence of trade tensions between
major economies could further disrupt supply

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chains, reduce exports, and
weaken consumption and investment.

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By contrast, growth could turn out to be
higher, if the economy and energy markets

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were to adapt more quickly than expected
to the disruption caused by the ongoing

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conflicts or if these conflicts
were resolved sustainably.

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Moreover, the adoption of new technologies
by euroarea firms and governments

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spending on infrastructure and defense,
as well as reforms to enhance productivity

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and complete the EU's single market, may
drive up growth by more than expected.

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The risks to the inflation
outlook are to the upside.

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This is due in particular to the Middle
East conflict and recent developments in

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Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine.
The energy shock could intensify further,

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and its effects on other prices and wages
could be stronger than currently expected.

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Gas prices, in particular, could increase
if supplies disrupted further or an

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unusual cold winter coincides
with low storage levels.

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The longer energy prices stay high, the
more likely they are to drive up broader

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inflation, through

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indirect and second-round effects. Renewed
trade tensions could give rise to more

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fragmented global supply chains, curtail
the supply of critical raw materials, and

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worsen capacity constraints
in the euroarea economy.

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Extreme weather events, potentially
reinforced by intensifying El Niño conditions,

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and the unfolding climate and nature
crisis, more broadly, could drive up food

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prices by more than expected.

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By contrast, inflation could turn out to
be lower if ongoing geopolitical conflicts

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were resolved sustainably, or if indirect
or second-round effects from higher energy

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prices proved less
pronounced than anticipated.

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More volatile and risk-averse financial
markets, together with higher long-term

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interest rates, could weigh on demand,
and thereby lower inflation as well.

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Financial conditions now.

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Financial conditions have tightened,
since our previous meeting.

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Interest rates have broadly moved
up, while stock prices have fallen.

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The cost of market-based
debt for firms rose to 4.

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1% in August, from 4% in July, while bank
lending rates for firms remained at 3.8%.

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Growth in bank lending to firms
slowed to an annual rate of 4.

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2% in August and September,
from 4.4% in July.

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While corporate bond issuance
grew at an annual rate of 4.

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2% in September, up from
3.8% in August and 3.

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5% in July.

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Credit standards for loans to firms tightened
in the third quarter, as reported in

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our latest bank lending survey, with banks
citing concern about the economic risks

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faced by their customers.

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Despite higher financing needs for inventories,
and working capital, corporate loan

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demand declined, reflecting in
particular higher interest rates.

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Mortgage rates rose to
3.8% in August, from 3.

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5% in July, while mortgage lending
growth edged down to 3% in September.

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Credit standards for mortgage lending were
unchanged in the third quarter, whereas

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demand for mortgages declined
substantially, given higher interest rates.

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So, in conclusion, the governing council
today decided to keep the three key ECB

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interest rates unchanged.

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We are committed to setting monetary policy
to ensure that inflation stabilizes at

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our 2% target in the medium term.

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We will follow a data-dependent and
meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the

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appropriate monetary policy stance.

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Our interest rate decisions will be based
on our assessment of the inflation outlook

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and the risks surrounding it, in light of
the incoming economic and financial data,

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as well as the dynamics of underlying
inflation and the strength of monetary policy

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transmission.

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We are not pre-committing
to a particular rate path.

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And in any case, we stand ready to adjust
all of our instruments within our mandate,

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to ensure that inflation stabilizes
sustainably at our medium-term target, and to

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preserve the smooth functioning
of monetary policy transmission.

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We are now ready to take your questions.

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First question goes to our
neighbor, Vice President of CNBC.

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Please.

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Thank you very much. President
Lagarde, I have two questions.

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One on monetary policy. The first one on
monetary policy is that, for the first time

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in, I don't know, how long, the mentioning
of second-round effects in your press

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release was quite striking. So does it
also mean that the markets bought right to

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expect a rate hike in December, because
clearly there is now a risk of second-round

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effects? Second question is, how do you
marry your position, which was which you

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said I think it was spring this year, that
the captain stays on the ship when there

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are clouds on the horizon, given that the
euroarea is probably in a worse situation

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than in spring? Looking at France, looking
at the inflation picture, and perhaps you

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can tell us more about
your motivation. Thank you.

00:14:28.917 --> 00:14:31.145
Thank you very much
for your two questions.

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And I would suggest that we deal, first
and foremost, with the monetary policy

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statement and the monetary policy
decision questions, and that if there are

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additional questions, in relation to me,
for instance, that we keep that for the

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end, because the real order of
business here is the monetary policy.

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So, your second question will I'll deal
with it later in the press conference, if

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that's okay with you. So,. You are right
that second-round effects and the risk of

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second-round effects is something that
we have paid very special attention to.

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I think I said that in previous press
conferences, as inflation rises, as the risk

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to inflation has increased, we pay
special attention to the direct effect.

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We see it clearly, to the indirect effect.

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We have seen an increase of those indirect
effects, and to the secondary effects.

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Which would require a
particular policy decision.

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We are very attentive and, at this
point in time, we are not seeing risk of

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second-round effects in addition to what
is already included in the projections.

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So, if you will, the projections that
were prepared in September did include the

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risk of second-round effects. So we are
looking very attentively to that and for the

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for the moment, as I think we say very
clearly in the monetary policy statement, we

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do not see material risk of
second-round effect at the moment.

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But give me the opportunity because I
deferred your second question to a bit later,

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to give you a little bit of
flavor of the debate that we had.

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Because while we were very attentive to
second-round effects, and in particular to

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the evolution of wages, to the wage
tracker, to the compensation per employee

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projections, to every instrument that we
have to measure wages, in all sectors,

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including the opening position of unions
in the coming collective bargaining

00:16:49.377 --> 00:16:54.289
bargaining agreement discussions, we
have also looked at what has really

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significantly changed
compared to last September.

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And the two key changes that we have seen
is, first and foremost, the energy prices.

00:17:05.337 --> 00:17:12.085
And on that front, it's a combination of
oil prices, but more importantly, petrol,

00:17:12.278 --> 00:17:16.257
fuel, gas, and of course refining margins.

00:17:16.317 --> 00:17:21.730
And that has increased significantly. It's
well reflected in the energy inflation

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numbers, 18. 8, if I
recall, as compared to.

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Lower number in September.
So a clear increase there.

00:17:31.857 --> 00:17:36.589
But another new development that we have
observed as well since September is the

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cost of long-term financing. Which, as
indeed increased, and, you know, of course we

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look at numbers, and the average 10-year
sovereign yields has risen by around 35%.

00:17:53.337 --> 00:17:59.162
Sorry, 35 basis points since our last
cutoff for the September projections.

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So if you combine these two factors, actually
the governing council debated whether

00:18:06.648 --> 00:18:16.704
a hike was appropriate. But on the basis
of the uncertainty that accumulates, and

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that rises as well, on the basis of
underlying inflation that has broadly remained

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unchanged,.

00:18:28.797 --> 00:18:34.497
The governing council unanimously decided
that we were well positioned enough at

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this stage to hold, and that a measured
approach at this point in time remained

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appropriate.

00:18:44.577 --> 00:18:49.403
So that's the that's the discussion that
we had over the last few hours, as well as

00:18:49.454 --> 00:18:55.217
yesterday afternoon. I think it gives
you the flavor of, you know, dissecting

00:18:55.317 --> 00:19:00.983
inflation, as much as we could, and the
consequences of inflation on wages in

00:19:01.056 --> 00:19:06.777
particular, but also the overall changes
that we have seen and always applying our

00:19:06.837 --> 00:19:11.397
three-prong approach to our monetary
stance, monetary policy stance.

00:19:12.417 --> 00:19:13.617
Thank you.

00:19:14.517 --> 00:19:18.597
Next question, Balazs Korányi
of Reuters. Balazs, please.

00:19:20.937 --> 00:19:24.922
Thank you very much. I'm afraid one of my
questions is also going to get bumped to

00:19:24.992 --> 00:19:26.192
the back of the queue.

00:19:26.337 --> 00:19:29.477
No, not suggesting that we bump, but I'm
suggesting that we focus all the question

00:19:29.527 --> 00:19:31.797
on monetary policy first
and then the others.

00:19:32.817 --> 00:19:37.257
Given what you said about upside risk to
inflation, you just said the middle path

00:19:37.317 --> 00:19:43.513
seems appropriate. Was there also
consensus on this in the governing council?

00:19:43.557 --> 00:19:47.325
Because you mentioned there was a
discussion of raising interest rates.

00:19:47.397 --> 00:19:56.793
So was there unanimity on this as well? And
given this upside risk, do you think the

00:19:56.840 --> 00:20:01.247
ECB will need to keep raising interest
rates at some point in the future?

00:20:01.317 --> 00:20:07.106
Second question is kind of
similar to Annette's question.

00:20:07.197 --> 00:20:12.480
I'm also curious about the whys. Why
would you leave Europe's most powerful

00:20:12.545 --> 00:20:18.704
financial position? And I'm especially
interested in this thought that you might

00:20:18.790 --> 00:20:24.427
want to take a greater view on French
politics, want to have the ability to express

00:20:24.477 --> 00:20:31.303
yourself, is this indeed the case? And
in what way would you be doing this?

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Would you be standing for office? Or
would you be just commenting on what's

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happening?

00:20:42.777 --> 00:20:48.768
So you were right, Balazs. The second
question, I will I will address it at a later

00:20:48.814 --> 00:20:55.409
stage. But on your first question, there.
Was that debate, you know, we look at

00:20:55.460 --> 00:21:00.708
numbers, we look at increased
risk, we look at the final.

00:21:00.837 --> 00:21:04.908
Tightening as a result of
the long-term interest rates.

00:21:04.977 --> 00:21:12.510
And pros and cons and there were views
along the lines of maybe now, why not.

00:21:12.597 --> 00:21:17.937
There was a unanimous decision at the
end of the discussion that we were in a

00:21:18.057 --> 00:21:24.217
sufficiently good
position to actually wait.

00:21:24.297 --> 00:21:30.837
For additional information and the
inter-meeting period will be information-rich.

00:21:30.897 --> 00:21:35.080
I'm going to take you through the list of
what we're going to receive in the next

00:21:35.157 --> 00:21:40.809
few weeks that will actually
help us determine whether the.

00:21:40.917 --> 00:21:48.472
Situation that we see now, which could
have warranted a hike, is going to be

00:21:48.648 --> 00:21:54.366
confirmed. And in that case, the
sense of direction is quite clear.

00:21:54.657 --> 00:21:58.120
So the list of information
that we will have.

00:21:58.197 --> 00:22:04.748
A new set of staff projections,
September sorry, September.

00:22:04.857 --> 00:22:08.689
Not September, December will
be a projection exercise.

00:22:08.757 --> 00:22:15.623
Two new inflation prints. Quarter to 3
GDP, Q3 unemployment compensation per

00:22:15.674 --> 00:22:20.557
employee and negotiated wages, two unemployment
readings, two industrial production

00:22:20.613 --> 00:22:25.383
releases the November PMIs, two rounds
of bank interest rate statistics for both

00:22:25.437 --> 00:22:29.924
September and October. So as you see, there
is a mine of information and data that

00:22:29.988 --> 00:22:34.920
we will receive in the weeks to come. And
this will be particularly relevant with

00:22:34.965 --> 00:22:40.662
underlying inflation. Because while
underlying inflation, as has not been very

00:22:40.710 --> 00:22:47.375
informative at the beginning of the shock,
the more we progress into the shock, the

00:22:47.457 --> 00:22:52.557
more informative-rich the
underlying inflation indicators are.

00:22:52.737 --> 00:22:55.374
They are beginning to be more informative.

00:22:55.437 --> 00:23:01.036
And broadly, you know,
they haven't changed.

00:23:01.137 --> 00:23:04.380
There's a specific mention to that
effect in the monetary policy statement.

00:23:04.437 --> 00:23:09.887
But with those six weeks of additional
information, we will have a lot more in

00:23:09.942 --> 00:23:14.104
relation to underlying inflation. And that's
what we will be particularly attentive

00:23:14.150 --> 00:23:16.437
to. Not to the detriment
on inflation outlook.

00:23:16.497 --> 00:23:19.198
We will continue to look
at inflation outlook.

00:23:19.257 --> 00:23:24.452
We will continue to look at the risks. We
will most likely produce scenarios again

00:23:24.591 --> 00:23:29.980
in December. And we will, of course,
look at the dynamics and the strength of

00:23:30.033 --> 00:23:34.658
monetary policy transmission. But
underlying inflation will probably take a

00:23:34.759 --> 00:23:41.028
particular standing in the three-prong
approach that we apply to our monetary policy

00:23:41.097 --> 00:23:42.297
decision.

00:23:44.217 --> 00:23:46.748
Our next question is for
Alex Weber from Bloomberg.

00:23:46.797 --> 00:23:47.997
Alex, please.

00:23:51.297 --> 00:23:56.759
Thank you very much. My first question is
on the French bond markets in particular.

00:23:56.817 --> 00:24:00.734
So with the kind of spread widening we've
seen in recent weeks, there's been a lot

00:24:00.775 --> 00:24:05.091
of questions about whether and
when the ECB should get involved.

00:24:05.157 --> 00:24:09.237
Can you tell us a bit about how which
metrics you're watching specifically?

00:24:09.297 --> 00:24:12.911
Is it more about the speed of the adjustment,
the absolute level of the spread, or

00:24:12.951 --> 00:24:16.415
is it actually about
contagion to other countries?

00:24:16.497 --> 00:24:18.797
My second question also in the
same vein as my colleagues.

00:24:18.837 --> 00:24:21.597
I'm sorry about your
departure. You're now leaving.

00:24:21.897 --> 00:24:23.097
Thank you.

00:24:23.097 --> 00:24:26.880
You're now leaving at the beginning of
a year with a lot of national elections,

00:24:26.934 --> 00:24:31.864
especially in your home country. Did you
consider whether this particular timing

00:24:31.955 --> 00:24:35.157
could undermine the
independence of the ECB?

00:24:38.937 --> 00:24:43.553
Thank you very much for both questions.
And I will entertain your second question

00:24:43.621 --> 00:24:50.055
with the other two. So I hope you don't
mind, but I'm going to give you a documented

00:24:50.097 --> 00:24:55.755
and well-articulated response because this
is a matter which I had assumed you might

00:24:55.910 --> 00:25:05.328
raise. The first response that I would
give you is that this long-term and we look

00:25:05.404 --> 00:25:09.417
at the tenure, but we
look at the entire curve.

00:25:09.477 --> 00:25:14.193
But say the long end of the curve across
the world, not specifically for a member

00:25:14.235 --> 00:25:18.881
state, not specifically for the whole of
Europe, but across the world, as reason

00:25:18.968 --> 00:25:23.896
significantly. If you compare numbers,
say you take February and now you have a

00:25:23.945 --> 00:25:30.640
significant number of basis points
that have increased these these.

00:25:30.717 --> 00:25:34.691
Corporate bonds and and this
is caused by multiple factors.

00:25:34.737 --> 00:25:37.201
This is called caused
by expected inflation.

00:25:37.257 --> 00:25:40.607
This is caused by expected
interest rate path.

00:25:40.737 --> 00:25:47.855
And we. Think, although there is a very
interesting blog that I highly recommend, we

00:25:47.933 --> 00:25:54.091
think that the debt issuance by some of the
hyperscalers without really crowding out

00:25:54.214 --> 00:25:59.699
yet but increasing the volume of long-term
bonds that are issued also plays a role.

00:25:59.757 --> 00:26:05.046
But that has affected the
entire the entire market.

00:26:05.217 --> 00:26:08.777
Second observation, and that
applies also to all countries.

00:26:08.877 --> 00:26:15.734
Those countries with the high debt, with
high debt, have to factor into their fiscal

00:26:15.837 --> 00:26:22.317
policy plans the fact that interest
rates are higher and will probably remain

00:26:22.377 --> 00:26:23.337
higher.

00:26:23.337 --> 00:26:24.537
For a period of time.

00:26:26.757 --> 00:26:32.708
In Europe, if you apply that principle,
what it means is that policy measures have

00:26:32.784 --> 00:26:40.197
to be adopted as part of a plan that
is always submitted to Brussels.

00:26:40.317 --> 00:26:46.901
And that has to comply with
the European fiscal framework.

00:26:47.097 --> 00:26:51.817
So we will be looking at all
that, obviously, and some.

00:26:51.897 --> 00:26:56.826
Member states face particular challenges
I would say that it narrows down and it

00:26:56.877 --> 00:27:04.735
boils down to those countries that
have a high level of debt in general.

00:27:04.917 --> 00:27:11.526
But I would also add that should
market developments threaten the smooth

00:27:11.577 --> 00:27:17.722
transmission of our monetary policy,
including through unwarranted and disorderly

00:27:17.796 --> 00:27:22.544
market movements, we have
instruments available to respond.

00:27:22.677 --> 00:27:26.811
And the criterias and conditions under
which this applies, are well known.

00:27:26.877 --> 00:27:30.162
They are published. And
I'm sure you know them.

00:27:30.237 --> 00:27:31.437
Thank you.

00:27:33.177 --> 00:27:35.600
Stefan Rakius of
Handelsblatt next, please.

00:27:35.637 --> 00:27:36.837
Stefan.

00:27:38.637 --> 00:27:43.284
Thank you for the floor. Good afternoon.
My first question is on monetary policy you

00:27:43.333 --> 00:27:47.766
mentioned that you are still in
the phase of measured tightening.

00:27:47.877 --> 00:27:53.266
That said, why would there be any doubt
that the ECB will stick to the quarterly

00:27:53.322 --> 00:27:59.452
pace and hike again in December? And my
second question, also on a personal note,

00:27:59.531 --> 00:28:05.523
will you let us know what you are going to
do explicitly after the 7th of February?

00:28:05.577 --> 00:28:06.777
Thanks.

00:28:08.397 --> 00:28:15.077
Thank you very much. So to your first
question, yes, at this point in time, we are

00:28:15.135 --> 00:28:22.151
still on this measured response
to the current situation.

00:28:22.257 --> 00:28:30.884
And as I said earlier on, we will
assess the development of geopolitical.

00:28:30.957 --> 00:28:38.564
Situation, the development of energy
prices, the development of tightening of the

00:28:38.679 --> 00:28:46.404
the cost of financing, and any other facts,
figures, that are relevant to compare

00:28:46.460 --> 00:28:52.751
the situation as we have it now
with what we receive next December.

00:28:52.857 --> 00:28:59.157
And as I said, unless there were major
development, the direction of travel is quite

00:28:59.210 --> 00:29:08.440
clear. For all of us. Is there a case for
reducing our activity to the quarterly

00:29:08.508 --> 00:29:09.417
meetings?

00:29:09.417 --> 00:29:10.617
No.

00:29:11.097 --> 00:29:14.477
No. We have never restricted
ourselves to that.

00:29:14.577 --> 00:29:20.652
It is it is true that we
are more data-rich at.

00:29:20.757 --> 00:29:26.305
Those projection meetings, but we are also
capable of understanding what staff is

00:29:26.386 --> 00:29:30.941
explaining to us, the information they're
collecting, the analysis that they they

00:29:31.004 --> 00:29:38.539
do. And if it was so warranted, in order
to reach our target of 2% medium term, not

00:29:38.646 --> 00:29:44.261
restricted to quarterly meetings. And we
have no plan to restrict the number of

00:29:44.304 --> 00:29:46.197
meetings that we'll deal
with monetary policy.

00:29:51.657 --> 00:29:54.493
Next question. Olaf
Störbeck of Financial Times.

00:29:54.537 --> 00:29:55.737
Olaf, please.

00:29:58.977 --> 00:30:04.915
Yeah. Thanks for taking my questions. I
have also one on on your or kind of on on

00:30:04.979 --> 00:30:11.662
implications of your decision today. So
you are the eighth of 26 executive board

00:30:11.707 --> 00:30:16.732
members in the history of the ECB who is
resigning or who is leaving early, which is

00:30:16.786 --> 00:30:22.432
quite a high share. Does this point to some
flaws in the ECB's governance, or is it

00:30:22.497 --> 00:30:23.337
is the.

00:30:23.337 --> 00:30:24.957
Sorry. Can you repeat your question? You.

00:30:25.257 --> 00:30:30.697
Eight of the the total exec 26 executive
board members, including you, will have

00:30:30.747 --> 00:30:37.137
left early before the kind of full serving
the full term, which is quite a high rate

00:30:37.217 --> 00:30:41.464
that does this suggest there there
are yeah flaws in the governance?

00:30:41.517 --> 00:30:45.897
Is are ideas too long? You said in this
Bloomberg interview early at the start of

00:30:45.937 --> 00:30:49.054
the year, you initially
thought it's a five-year term.

00:30:49.137 --> 00:30:52.500
So yeah, I would be interested
in your thought on that.

00:30:52.557 --> 00:31:01.791
And also coming back to French bond yields,
and to to what extent is the recent rise

00:31:01.849 --> 00:31:05.586
in government bond yields doing some
of the ECB's work at the moment?

00:31:05.637 --> 00:31:10.744
And is the need for further interest
rate increases reduced because of that?

00:31:10.857 --> 00:31:12.057
Thanks.

00:31:13.977 --> 00:31:18.283
Well, thank you on your first question.
I will only address the the issue of

00:31:18.371 --> 00:31:24.247
governance. I think the governance
of the ECB has proven its solidity.

00:31:24.357 --> 00:31:29.395
We have had transition in the past. Business
continuity has always been the mantra

00:31:29.445 --> 00:31:31.908
for this institution. It has never failed.

00:31:31.977 --> 00:31:37.328
And I have every confidence that it
will continue to apply the principles of

00:31:37.483 --> 00:31:44.505
continuity of mission-focused, determined
action to reach the target of our 2%

00:31:44.583 --> 00:31:49.895
medium term. And you can rest assured that
until February the 7th, I'm in charge I'm

00:31:49.977 --> 00:31:56.857
focused, and I will be working without
any reservation, without any excuses.

00:31:57.117 --> 00:32:02.597
On your other question, I think I've I've
addressed that, and it's really one of the

00:32:02.697 --> 00:32:07.437
one. Of the phenomenons that we have
observed, which have changed the picture since

00:32:07.497 --> 00:32:17.817
September. Because yes, you're
right, long-term Yields has.

00:32:17.877 --> 00:32:23.346
Increased, across the board, so more so
in some countries, less so in others.

00:32:23.397 --> 00:32:25.331
And then you begin looking at the spreads.

00:32:25.377 --> 00:32:32.244
And we look at everything. But that has
been a qualifying element, if you will, to

00:32:32.375 --> 00:32:45.024
the increase in energy prices. So energy
prices have increased inflation, long-term

00:32:45.094 --> 00:32:50.337
financing costs have qualified the magnitude
of that increase, and it's in those

00:32:50.397 --> 00:32:55.235
circumstances which we will be very
attentive to in the weeks to come.

00:32:55.317 --> 00:32:59.671
And with another special focus on
underlying inflation, that we will make our

00:32:59.740 --> 00:33:00.940
decision in December.

00:33:04.497 --> 00:33:07.551
Next question, Andres Stumpf
of Expansion in Spain.

00:33:07.617 --> 00:33:08.817
Andres, please.

00:33:09.897 --> 00:33:17.059
Hello. Madame President, I I would like to
know if this no hiking thing, because of

00:33:17.157 --> 00:33:22.765
tighter financial conditions in the
markets, is a one thing only, this for this

00:33:22.846 --> 00:33:28.931
meeting, or if it will happen
to continue throughout November.

00:33:29.037 --> 00:33:35.125
The ECB could not hike or or keep the
interest rate unchanged again because of that.

00:33:35.217 --> 00:33:40.285
And a second question
for the pile of later.

00:33:40.497 --> 00:33:46.787
The mandates in the European Council and
the European Parliament are going to be

00:33:47.157 --> 00:33:53.258
discussed in before you leave. Would you
be interested at all or not applying to

00:33:53.349 --> 00:33:57.237
those positions? Thank
you. Just to keep you near.

00:33:59.577 --> 00:34:03.706
That's really kind of you, but I I'll try
to address your second question as well

00:34:03.774 --> 00:34:11.740
with the other questions. So I think
you're right to actually characterize our

00:34:11.774 --> 00:34:15.486
decision. I hadn't thought about it, but
you're right in characterizing it as a no

00:34:15.588 --> 00:34:20.483
hiking decision. Because we we did ask
ourselves the question, and there was a

00:34:20.545 --> 00:34:26.207
number of us, you know, assessing and and
pondering whether it was warranted as of

00:34:26.277 --> 00:34:33.187
now already, or whether we needed to
confront the current assessment with future

00:34:33.297 --> 00:34:40.705
data numbers elements that we would assess
against our three-prong monetary policy

00:34:40.797 --> 00:34:47.376
reaction function. So it's as as I have
said, and you're probably getting tired of

00:34:47.455 --> 00:34:51.330
me saying it, but we
decide meeting by meeting.

00:34:51.417 --> 00:34:58.896
So it it does not indicate that
we will not be hiking in November.

00:34:58.977 --> 00:35:03.921
And our next meeting is in December. As
I've said earlier, I think in response to a

00:35:03.960 --> 00:35:13.568
previous question, if. The assessment
that we have today is not infirmed by

00:35:13.645 --> 00:35:17.157
significant developments, the
direction of travel is clear.

00:35:21.957 --> 00:35:24.725
Next question, Jean-Philippe
Lacour of Agence France-Presse.

00:35:24.777 --> 00:35:25.857
Jean-Philippe, please.

00:35:25.857 --> 00:35:26.757
Before I can.

00:35:26.757 --> 00:35:27.957
Hello, Madam President.

00:35:28.257 --> 00:35:29.457
Hello, Mr President.

00:35:29.637 --> 00:35:33.780
I have a question linked to France, and
it's only for the second and last part of

00:35:33.837 --> 00:35:37.968
the answering of the bunch
of questions we had today.

00:35:38.097 --> 00:35:42.822
What does really concern you the
most in France and your home country?

00:35:42.897 --> 00:35:45.788
I certainly not only the
high yields for the moment.

00:35:45.837 --> 00:35:50.753
So could you maybe describe
what are the main concerns?

00:35:50.817 --> 00:35:57.678
And and how do you want to, as you you
don't want to stay neutral toward this this

00:35:57.734 --> 00:36:02.327
situation, and what will be yes the
the the nature of your intervention?

00:36:02.397 --> 00:36:09.225
Do you intend to support actively maybe
one candidate or, if so, which one?

00:36:09.297 --> 00:36:14.365
And the last maybe very leger questions,
but when did you inform your grandchildren

00:36:14.418 --> 00:36:15.618
about your decision?

00:36:19.737 --> 00:36:20.937
I remember that.

00:36:22.437 --> 00:36:23.637
Them too. Them too.

00:36:25.137 --> 00:36:25.617
Okay.

00:36:25.617 --> 00:36:27.477
Are there other questions
on monetary policy?

00:36:28.797 --> 00:36:34.317
Yes. Then please Viggo Risvik of
the Dutch Daily Telegraaf, please.

00:36:38.397 --> 00:36:43.210
Thank you. I was wondering,
also, about France a bit.

00:36:43.257 --> 00:36:48.726
So it's a bit on defense of
monetary policy, but given.

00:36:48.777 --> 00:36:54.733
The current situation in France, besides
the spreads rising, not all that much has

00:36:54.797 --> 00:37:01.052
changed in the last six months. High
debt has been known for quite some time.

00:37:01.137 --> 00:37:07.806
Yet now there are some talks about the
possibility of another euro crisis.

00:37:07.977 --> 00:37:12.257
I was wondering what your
thoughts are on that.

00:37:12.537 --> 00:37:18.046
And I do have a second question
also about your departure.

00:37:18.177 --> 00:37:24.393
Now in the next six in the first six months
of 2027, three experienced board members

00:37:24.454 --> 00:37:30.625
will leave the ECB. I was wondering how
you will think about the continuity of the

00:37:30.689 --> 00:37:31.917
ECB in that regard.

00:37:37.317 --> 00:37:46.305
Thank you thank you very much. On
on your question regarding the.

00:37:46.857 --> 00:37:50.182
I think I will I will take Monsieur
Lacour's question regarding what concerns me

00:37:50.225 --> 00:37:54.599
later on, because it applies not to one
country, it applies to all countries.

00:37:54.657 --> 00:38:02.961
So have there been changes in the last
six months where they clearly have been

00:38:03.037 --> 00:38:07.590
changes? They're the ones
that apply to all countries?

00:38:07.677 --> 00:38:10.553
The ones related to
energy prices in general?

00:38:10.617 --> 00:38:15.233
The ones related to financing and particularly
the financing costs at the long at

00:38:15.291 --> 00:38:22.189
the long end of the curve? And obviously
we are mindful of all such developments.

00:38:22.317 --> 00:38:25.748
Do I fear that there will
be developments coming up?

00:38:25.857 --> 00:38:31.085
There will be developments, obviously. But
this is not going to deter us, European

00:38:31.150 --> 00:38:35.156
Central Bank, from delivering on
our mission of price stability.

00:38:35.217 --> 00:38:40.125
And we will continue to do that on the basis
of all the information that we receive.

00:38:40.197 --> 00:38:41.397
Thank you.

00:38:44.577 --> 00:38:48.978
Turning to turning to our online participants,
I'd like to give the floor to Silvia

00:38:49.017 --> 00:38:52.557
Berzoni of Cora Media.
Silvia, over to you, please.

00:38:57.117 --> 00:38:58.317
Good afternoon, President.

00:38:59.937 --> 00:39:00.357
Good afternoon.

00:39:00.357 --> 00:39:04.274
I think we are all I think we
are all sorry for your departure.

00:39:04.317 --> 00:39:09.642
So two questions, if I may. The first
one is what worries you the most today?

00:39:09.717 --> 00:39:13.239
If it's inflation or
financial fragmentation.

00:39:13.317 --> 00:39:18.943
And in September, French sovereign bond
holdings declined significantly less than

00:39:19.029 --> 00:39:23.530
Italians and Germans under the
quantitative tightening program.

00:39:23.577 --> 00:39:30.464
So as the pattern continued in October,
and is this purely a mechanical rolloff?

00:39:30.537 --> 00:39:31.737
Thank you very much.

00:39:32.877 --> 00:39:37.054
Well, thank you so much. And thank
you I will miss you, actually.

00:39:37.137 --> 00:39:42.717
So what worries me most is anything
that affects price stability.

00:39:42.777 --> 00:39:49.690
Because we are fixated on on our mandate,
and price stability is, you know, our our

00:39:49.797 --> 00:39:56.842
compass. So obviously inflation matters
a lot, but price stability does not take

00:39:56.888 --> 00:40:01.689
place without financial stability. So
we have to look out for any threats to

00:40:01.742 --> 00:40:04.623
financial stability and any
threat to price stability.

00:40:04.677 --> 00:40:10.454
So I would say that I would package this
too, because what's driving us is the the

00:40:10.594 --> 00:40:17.891
price stability mandate that we have. I
think you had another question now that I

00:40:17.937 --> 00:40:22.607
think of it. It was after you
told me that you would miss me.

00:40:22.677 --> 00:40:23.577
What was the second?

00:40:23.577 --> 00:40:27.279
It's the French bond holdings declining
and whether it's purely a mechanical

00:40:27.341 --> 00:40:28.797
rolloff. That's the one that I've noted.

00:40:31.857 --> 00:40:33.357
I'm sorry. I missed the second part.

00:40:34.377 --> 00:40:35.577
You want to repeat it, perhaps?

00:40:36.657 --> 00:40:43.077
Yeah. Yeah. It does exactly. In
September, French sovereign bond holdings.

00:40:43.257 --> 00:40:43.797
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:40:43.797 --> 00:40:47.277
Declined. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So
if this is just a mechanical.

00:40:47.457 --> 00:40:52.062
Okay. My understanding of of that, but I'm
not the, you know, the top-notch expert

00:40:52.137 --> 00:40:58.752
for all redemption. Of all bonds coming
up for all countries across the member

00:40:58.797 --> 00:41:05.251
states. What I can tell you is that we
are not changing our policy as far as

00:41:05.577 --> 00:41:09.397
letting. Redemption take
place without purchasing.

00:41:09.477 --> 00:41:14.016
And without replacing those bonds that
that come for redemption, I also know for a

00:41:14.060 --> 00:41:18.512
fact that that's from previous life, that
November is is a pretty heavy month when

00:41:18.566 --> 00:41:21.895
it comes to France in particular.
But it's all mechanical.

00:41:21.957 --> 00:41:25.998
There is no behind-the-scene, you know,
arrangement to tweak here, tweak there,

00:41:26.046 --> 00:41:29.637
rebalance, and and cut corners. We we
just apply the principle of no redemption.

00:41:33.237 --> 00:41:34.557
Would you like to address
the other question?

00:41:34.737 --> 00:41:41.522
Okay. So allow me not to necessarily dig
into each and every specific aspect of your

00:41:41.608 --> 00:41:46.609
of your question in relation
to my decision to step down.

00:41:46.677 --> 00:41:53.046
So my decision is to step down from my
position as President of the European Central

00:41:53.105 --> 00:41:58.180
Bank after the February monetary
policy governing council.

00:41:58.257 --> 00:42:01.923
So you will have the great pleasure, and
I will have the great pleasure of seeing

00:42:01.970 --> 00:42:07.199
those of you who care to come twice:
once in December, once in February.

00:42:07.257 --> 00:42:11.449
So we are not done. We will
continue to see each other.

00:42:11.517 --> 00:42:19.587
And I'm delighted about that.
There is never a good time to.

00:42:19.737 --> 00:42:25.325
Leave. But it's embedded in the governance
of the ECB that presidents, board

00:42:25.396 --> 00:42:29.675
members, have to leave because
they cannot be up for renewal.

00:42:29.757 --> 00:42:36.049
So the end of my term in any event
would have been October 2027.

00:42:36.177 --> 00:42:42.808
The reason I'm anticipating the end of my
term by living in February of 2027 instead

00:42:42.897 --> 00:42:49.493
of October is, as I have said to
colleagues, members of staff, and governors,

00:42:49.557 --> 00:42:56.798
because I want to have the freedom of
speech, the freedom of expression, and the

00:42:56.865 --> 00:43:02.671
freedom to engage on matters that
are not monetary policy matters.

00:43:02.757 --> 00:43:08.087
As you all know, as President of the European
Central Bank and my colleagues on the

00:43:08.145 --> 00:43:12.209
executive boards and on the governing
council are under pretty much the same

00:43:12.292 --> 00:43:16.991
constraints, we have an
obligation of neutrality.

00:43:17.097 --> 00:43:21.101
We comment on the situation with
the focus on monetary policy.

00:43:21.177 --> 00:43:25.877
We are driven by one mandate, and we don't
get out of that mandate because that's

00:43:25.917 --> 00:43:35.112
the price we pay for being independent. At
this time, in relation to many corners of

00:43:35.177 --> 00:43:41.774
the world, not just European corners, not
just Europe, I think that my voice can

00:43:41.866 --> 00:43:48.454
help, my action can help in relation to
principles that are dear to my heart.

00:43:48.597 --> 00:43:55.808
One of those principles because I think
Jean-Philippe Lacour, you asked me.

00:43:56.037 --> 00:44:01.201
I don't think that I can remain neutral.
I don't think that I can be comfortable in

00:44:01.262 --> 00:44:07.228
that neutrality at the present time.
And I'm interested in the truth.

00:44:07.317 --> 00:44:14.110
And I see the truth
being very often damaged.

00:44:14.337 --> 00:44:23.684
Contradicted. By Misrepresentation, and
from the position that I have had for the

00:44:23.742 --> 00:44:25.137
last 20-plus years of my

00:44:25.377 --> 00:44:30.135
life, in economic and financial matters,
on the international scene as managing

00:44:30.197 --> 00:44:35.101
director of the IMF, as president of the
ECB, there are things that I can say with

00:44:35.171 --> 00:44:39.246
the people will listen
or not is another story.

00:44:39.417 --> 00:44:42.050
But I feel that I should say those things.

00:44:42.117 --> 00:44:48.036
And I cannot do so in my current position.

00:44:48.177 --> 00:44:49.317
Voilà.

00:44:49.317 --> 00:44:53.727
Thank you. That concludes
our press conference.

00:44:53.817 --> 00:44:54.657
And.

00:44:54.657 --> 00:44:59.148
And no, one more thing that I would like
to say, because I don't want to, you know,

00:44:59.277 --> 00:45:04.255
I will be replaced. So rest assured that
not only the ECB is going to carry on with

00:45:04.324 --> 00:45:10.062
perfect continuity of business.
A process has already started.

00:45:10.137 --> 00:45:16.144
To identify my successor. There are plenty
of excellent candidates, much better than

00:45:16.215 --> 00:45:20.489
me, actually. So don't worry
about continuity of business.

00:45:20.577 --> 00:45:23.919
Don't worry about, you know,
decision-making in limbo.

00:45:23.997 --> 00:45:29.858
No. Absolutely not. The
institution is solid, strong.

00:45:29.937 --> 00:45:33.390
Like a rock. And it
will continue being so.

00:45:33.477 --> 00:45:34.617
Thank you.

00:45:34.617 --> 00:45:39.293
We'll see each other again if you want
on 17 December here for the next press

00:45:39.357 --> 00:45:40.557
conference. Thank you very much.
